Fantasy Football Primer Overview

If you’re reading this, hopefully that means that you’re moving on to the next round of the Fantasy Football playoffs. If you’re not, well, at least this helps with betting props, setting DFS lineups, or avoiding a last-place finish and your league punishment. Dialing in for the fantasy playoffs can be hard enough when dealing with injuries to your roster and the ever-changing NFL landscape, but the upcoming holiday festivities and preparing for those add another layer to the equation.

This primer is designed to make it easier all season to focus on those lineup decisions and dominate the competition. There is another week of football and matchups to discuss. Welcome to the Week 16 Primer.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

SEA -1.5, O/U 42.5.

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings: Matthew Stafford QB1/2, Kyren Williams RB1/2, Blake Corum RB3, Puka Nacua WR1, Davante Adams Out, Jordan Whittington WR5, Colby Parkinson TE1.

Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings: Sam Darnold QB2, Kenneth Walker III RB2/3, Zach Charbonnet RB2/3, Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1, Cooper Kupp WR4, Rashid Shaheed WR3/4, A.J. Barner TE2.

Must-Start Options

These are no-brainer must starts: Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Strong Starts

Rashid Shaheed has finished as the WR14 and WR28 in weekly scoring over the last two weeks with an 18.2% target share, 70.5 receiving yards per game, 2.71 yards per route run, and a 23.8% first-read share. During these two weeks, he has had one red zone target and three deep targets. Shaheed is a surprisingly strong flex this week against a secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Colby Parkinson has been the TE11 and TE5 in weekly scoring over the last two weeks. Since Week 14, he has had a 63.9% route share, a 17.4% target share, 53.5 receiving yards per game, 2.33 yards per route run, and a 16.4% first-read share. In those two games, he has seen seven red zone targets and two deep targets with three touchdowns. Seattle has been a good matchup for tight ends this season, giving up the ninth-most yards per target and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Parkinson profiles as a strong TE1 this week and should operate as the second option in the passing attack behind Puka Nacua with Davante Adams out.

Flex and Deep Plays to Consider

Sam Darnold is the QB22 in fantasy points per game, with QB1 weekly finishes in only three of his last seven games, including a QB25 outing in his last meeting with the Rams. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks first in yards per attempt, seventh in passing yards per game, second in highly accurate throw rate, 22nd in catchable target rate, and 13th in fantasy points per dropback. The Rams are a below-average matchup. Since Week 11, they have ranked 15th in yards per attempt and allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game, but they have also held quarterbacks to the second-lowest CPOE, the seventh-lowest success rate per dropback, and have forced the third-most interceptions. Darnold should be viewed as a decent QB2 this week.

Concerning Starts and Fades

Matthew Stafford is the QB4 in fantasy points per game with QB1 weekly finishes in eight of his last 11 games, but he was the QB16 the last time he played Seattle. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt, 13th in catchable target rate, second in hero throw rate, and fifth in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 11, Seattle’s pass defense has given up the lowest passing yards per game, the fewest yards per attempt, the third-lowest CPOE, and the second-lowest success rate per dropback. Stafford could still be a QB1, but losing Davante Adams hurts his outlook.

Kyren Williams has seen his workload managed as the Rams keep him fresh for the playoffs. Last week, he played 53.6% of the snaps with a 36.6% route share and 2.6% target share, finishing with 16 touches, 88 total yards, and three red zone rushing attempts. He should maintain a slim edge in usage over Blake Corum. Since Week 11, Seattle has allowed the 13th-lowest explosive run rate, the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest rushing success rate, and the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate, making this a tough matchup that Williams can still overcome with volume and touchdown equity.

Blake Corum has eaten into Kyren Williams’ workload with the Rams moving to a split backfield. Corum has had little passing game usage, with only one game this season with more than two targets. His fantasy value is tied to early-down rushing production. Last week, he played 46.4% of the snaps with a 26.8% route share and finished with 11 carries for 71 rushing yards. Given Seattle’s strong run defense metrics since Week 11, this is not an ideal matchup for a touchdown-dependent flex.

Kenneth Walker III has averaged 14 touches and 66.6 total yards since Week 11 with a 51.8% snap rate, 36.6% route share, and 8% target share, along with eight red zone rushing attempts compared to Zach Charbonnet’s 12. Among 43 qualifying backs, Walker ranks fourth in explosive run rate and third in missed tackle rate, but he faces a Rams defense that has allowed the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, the sixth-lowest rushing success rate, and the eighth-lowest yards before contact per attempt over that span.

Zach Charbonnet has averaged ten touches and 46.2 total yards since Week 11, leading the backfield with 12 red zone rushing attempts while playing 43% of the snaps with a 26.3% route share and 3.7% target share. He has been a touchdown-dependent flex, ranking 18th in missed tackle rate and fifth in yards after contact per attempt among 43 qualifying backs. The Rams’ run defense metrics since Week 11 make this a difficult spot.

Cooper Kupp has seen his role in the Seattle passing offense reduced since Week 14 as Rashid Shaheed has been integrated. Over that span, Kupp has a 15.2% target share with 40.5 receiving yards per game, 1.42 yards per route run, and a 21.4% first-read share, with four red zone targets and one deep target. His touchdown equity remains strong, but this is not the matchup to consider flexing him, as the Rams have allowed the second-fewest PPR points per target and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers since Week 10.

AJ Barner is the TE23 in fantasy points per game with a 64.8% route share, 13.5% target share, 29.5 receiving yards per game, 1.51 yards per route run, and an 11.2% first-read share. He is second on the team with ten red zone targets and has two deep targets. Since Week 11, the Rams have limited tight ends to the second-fewest yards per target and the third-fewest fantasy points per game, keeping Barner off the streaming radar.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders

PHI -6.5, O/U 44.5.

Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings: Jalen Hurts QB1, Saquon Barkley RB1, A.J. Brown WR1, DeVonta Smith WR2, Jahan Dotson WR5, Dallas Goedert TE1.

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings: Marcus Mariota QB2, Chris Rodriguez RB3, Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB4, Jeremy McNichols RB4, Terry McLaurin WR2/3, Deebo Samuel WR3, John Bates TE2/3, Ben Sinnott TE2/3.

Must-Start Options

Must-start players in this matchup include Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and A.J. Brown.

Strong Starts

DeVonta Smith is the WR29 in fantasy points per game with a 24% target share, 34.9% air-yard share, 2.07 yards per route run, and a 30% first-read share. He is third on the team with eight red zone targets and tied with A.J. Brown for the team lead in deep targets. Since Week 11, he has only one game with double-digit PPR points, two red zone targets, and has exceeded 55 receiving yards only once. Washington, however, has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target and the third-highest rating when targeted to perimeter wide receivers since Week 10, offering a bounce-back opportunity.

Dallas Goedert is the TE7 in fantasy points per game with a 19% target share, 42.4 receiving yards per game, 1.54 yards per route run, and a 21.6% first-read share. He has been the TE5 and TE3 in weekly scoring over the last two games and is tied for the team lead in red zone targets with 11 while adding six deep targets. Washington has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most yards per target to tight ends since Week 10, giving Goedert top-five upside again.

Flex and Deep Plays to Consider

Chris Rodriguez practiced in full all week and will be reinstalled as Washington’s early down thumper. In Weeks 11-14 in this role, he averaged 12.3 touches and 59.3 total yards with two top-36 running back weekly finishes (RB29, RB35). He has been efficient, ranking 33rd in explosive run rate and first in yards after contact per attempt among 58 qualifying backs. Since Week 11, Philadelphia has allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the eighth-most rushing yards per game, and the 11th-most yards before contact per attempt. Rodriguez is a strong RB3/flex who can finish as an RB2 if he scores.

Since his Week 13 return, Terry McLaurin has posted two top-20 weekly finishes (WR8, WR19) with a 23.7% target share, 68.7 receiving yards per game, 2.71 yards per route run, and a 28.8% first-read share. In those three games, he has five red zone targets and four deep targets. The usage is excellent, but he faces a tough test. Since Week 10, Philadelphia has ranked 16th in receiving yards per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers while surrendering the fifth-fewest PPR points per target to the position.

Concerning Starts and Fades

Marcus Mariota will be Washington’s starter for the rest of the season. He has three QB1 outings while averaging 6.4 rushing attempts and 36.7 rushing yards as the starter. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 11th in yards per attempt, 30th in catchable target rate, 27th in highly accurate throw rate, and eighth in hero throw rate. Since Week 11, Philadelphia has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the ninth-fewest passing yards per game, and the sixth-lowest CPOE. Mariota is best viewed as a decent QB2 in a difficult matchup.

Deebo Samuel is the WR24 in fantasy points per game, with seven deep targets and 12 red zone targets this season. He has a 23.3% target share, 46.5 receiving yards per game, 1.72 yards per route run, and a 28.1% first-read share. He has not had a 100-yard receiving day in 2025 and has surpassed 65 receiving yards in a game once since Week 5, relying heavily on touchdowns. Philadelphia has shut down slot receivers since Week 10, allowing the fewest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game to the position, making Samuel a touchdown-dependent option.

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

GB -1, O/U 46.5.

Packers Players & Weekly Rankings: Jordan Love QB1/2, Josh Jacobs RB1/2, Emanuel Wilson RB3, Christian Watson WR2/3, Romeo Doubs WR4/5, Jayden Reed WR3, Matthew Golden WR4/5, Dontayvion Wicks WR4/5, Luke Musgrave TE2/3.

Bears Players & Weekly Rankings: Caleb Williams QB2, D’Andre Swift RB2, Kyle Monangai RB2/3, Rome Odunze Out, DJ Moore WR2/3, Luther Burden Out, Colston Loveland TE1/2, Cole Kmet TE2/3.

Must-Start and Injury Context

Josh Jacobs is a must-start if active. He did not practice this week (knee/ankle) and is listed as questionable, with some reports suggesting he is closer to doubtful. If he is active, he belongs in lineups. Emanuel Wilson becomes relevant if Jacobs is out.

Strong Starts

D’Andre Swift has averaged 16.8 touches and 87 total yards since Week 11 with a 53.3% snap rate, 37.8% route share, and 4.8% target share. He has lost the goal-line battle to Kyle Monangai, with 11 red-zone rushing attempts versus Monangai’s 16, but remains the lead and preferred passing-down back. Among 43 qualifying backs, Swift ranks ninth in explosive run rate and 14th in missed tackle rate. Since Week 11, Green Bay has allowed the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the 13th-lowest rushing success rate, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt, making this a tough matchup that Swift can still navigate with volume.

Kyle Monangai has taken over as the team’s goal-line back since Week 11 with 16 red-zone rushing attempts while averaging 14.6 touches and 61 total yards, a 44.2% snap rate, 26.5% route share, and 3% target share. Among 43 qualifying backs, he ranks 21st in explosive run rate and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. With injuries to the receiver group, the offense should lean on the ground game despite Green Bay’s strong run defense metrics.

In Emanuel Wilson’s one start this season, he had 30 touches, 125 total yards, and two scores as the RB3 for the week, playing 56.1% of the snaps. If Jacobs is out, Wilson projects as the workhorse and a plug-and-play RB2. Among 58 qualifying backs, he ranks 54th in explosive run rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. He faces a Bears run defense that, since Week 11, has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-highest rushing success rate, and the second-most yards before contact per attempt.

In two games without Rome Odunze, DJ Moore has posted a 12.7% target share, 32.5 receiving yards per game, 1.16 yards per route run, and a 17.6% first-read share, with two red zone targets and three deep targets (two touchdowns), finishing as the WR97 and WR7. With Luther Burden also sidelined, Moore should see a bump in usage and is a strong WR2/3. Since Week 10, Green Bay has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target and the tenth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Jayden Reed’s route share increased to 67.4% last week. Since Week 14, he has a 21% targets-per-route-run rate with 43 receiving yards per game, 1.79 yards per route run, and a 19.4% first-read share, with one red zone target and no deep targets in those two games. Reed is a strong flex who can produce WR2/3 numbers against a Chicago defense that has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the ninth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers since Week 10.

Flex and Deep Plays to Consider

Jordan Love is the QB16 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 weekly finishes in his last five games (QB8, QB2, QB11). Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, he is eighth in yards per attempt, 12th in passing yards per game, 18th in catchable throw rate, and seventh in hero throw rate. Since Week 11, Chicago has allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards per game, the sixth-fewest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest success rate per dropback, and the sixth-lowest passer rating. Love is best viewed as a high-floor QB2 with some QB1 upside.

Caleb Williams has been a QB2 in weekly scoring in four of his last five games, including a QB16 performance against Green Bay. In that meeting, he completed 54.3% of his passes for 186 yards and two touchdowns. This week, he could be without Rome Odunze and Luther Burden, which hurts his outlook. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 17th in passing yards per game, 25th in yards per attempt, 34th in highly accurate throw rate, and 39th in catchable target rate. Since Week 11, Green Bay has allowed the 11th-fewest passing yards per game while ranking 17th in CPOE and 15th in success rate per dropback. Williams should be viewed as a decent QB2.

Christian Watson opened the week with a DNP before logging limited practices and is listed as questionable (chest/shoulder). His playing time is uncertain, but he has the speed and big-play potential to pay off even on limited snaps. Since Week 11, he has been the WR15 in fantasy points per game with a 21.7% target share, 58.6 receiving yards per game, 2.71 yards per route run, and a 30.9% first-read share, with three red zone targets and ten deep targets in five games. Since Week 13, Chicago has used man coverage and two-high looks at elevated rates. Against man coverage since Week 11, Watson has led the team with a 26.2% target share, 2.46 yards per route run, and a 31.6% first-read share; against two-high, he has led with an 18.3% target share, 2.41 yards per route run, and a 27.8% first-read share. Chicago has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 10, making this a tough but potentially rewarding matchup.

Colston Loveland secured four of five targets for 29 yards and a touchdown as the TE9 in his last meeting with Green Bay. Since Week 10, he has a 14.4% target share, 44 receiving yards per game, 2.13 yards per route run, and a 15.7% first-read share, with four red zone targets and one deep target in six games. With Rome Odunze and Luther Burden out, Caleb Williams should lean on him more. Green Bay has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per target and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends since Week 10, but Loveland has already shown he can produce in this matchup.

Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns

BUF -10.5, O/U 41.5.

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings: Josh Allen QB1, James Cook RB1, Ray Davis RB4, Ty Johnson RB4, Khalil Shakir WR3, Keon Coleman WR5, Brandin Cooks WR5, Joshua Palmer WR5, Dalton Kincaid TE1/2, Dawson Knox TE2.

Browns Players & Weekly Rankings: Shedeur Sanders QB2, Quinshon Judkins RB2, Dylan Sampson Out, Jerry Jeudy WR4, Cedric Tillman WR6, Gage Larvadain WR6, Harold Fannin Jr. TE1/2, David Njoku Out.

Must-Start Options

Josh Allen and James Cook are must-start players in this matchup.

Strong Starts

Quinshon Judkins is the RB23 in fantasy points per game, ranking 13th in snap share, 16th in weighted opportunities, and 24th in red zone touches. He has averaged 18.7 touches and 72.8 total yards. Among 43 qualifying backs, he ranks 32nd in explosive run rate and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 11, Buffalo has allowed the tenth-most rushing yards per game, the 12th-highest explosive run rate, the most yards before contact per attempt, and the seventh-highest rushing success rate, setting up another solid RB2 outing.

Flex and Deep Plays to Consider

Khalil Shakir is the WR41 in fantasy points per game with top-36 weekly finishes in three of his last four games (WR13, WR32, WR33). He has a 19.4% target share, 46.4 receiving yards per game, 1.90 yards per route run, and a 22.7% first-read share, with 11 red zone targets and six deep targets this season. Since Week 10, Cleveland has allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target and the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers, making Shakir a low-ceiling flex.

Dalton Kincaid opened the week with a DNP (knee), missed Thursday, then practiced fully on Friday and carries no injury designation. Over his last two games, he has had a 42% route share with a 16.1% target share, 37.5 receiving yards per game, 2.59 yards per route run, and a 21.1% first-read share, with three red zone targets and two deep targets. He could pay off as a low-end TE1 or fall into TE2 territory if his route share remains limited. Since Week 10, Cleveland has allowed the 14th-most yards per target and ranks 15th in fantasy points per game versus tight ends.

Concerning Starts and Fades

After a strong performance against the Titans in Week 14, Shedeur Sanders struggled last week with a 51.4% completion rate, 177 passing yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions (QB31). Since Week 12, among 33 qualifying passers, he has ranked 13th in yards per attempt, 15th in hero throw rate, 24th in highly accurate throw rate, and 30th in catchable target rate. Since Week 11, Buffalo has allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game, the eighth-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest CPOE, and ranks 16th in success rate per dropback. Sanders should at least have time in the pocket, as Buffalo has the second-lowest pressure rate over that span, but he is best left on the bench as a QB2.

Since Week 12, Jerry Jeudy has finished above WR59 in weekly scoring only once, and that was against Tennessee. Over those four games, he has a 13% target share, 40.8 receiving yards per game, 1.34 yards per route run, and a 16.7% first-read share, with no red zone targets and four deep targets. Buffalo has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 10, keeping Jeudy on the bench.

Since Week 12 with Shedeur Sanders under center, Harold Fannin Jr. has been the TE5 in fantasy points per game with a 28.5% target share, 61.3 receiving yards per game, 2.08 yards per route run, and a 31.8% first-read share, with three red zone targets and two deep targets (two touchdowns) in four games. Volume could still push him into TE1 territory, but Buffalo has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards and the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends this season, making this a very difficult matchup.