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Use our free Kelly Criterion Calculator to determine the optimal stake size for your bets. Based on your estimated probability and current odds, this tool tells you how much of your bankroll to risk – so you don't overbet or leave value on the table.
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The Kelly Criterion is a staking formula that helps bettors determine the ideal amount to wager based on their edge and bankroll. It aims to maximize long-term growth by calculating the optimal bet size where the expected value is highest without risking too much of your bankroll.
Unlike flat betting or gut-feel staking, the Kelly strategy uses a mathematical formula that takes into account:
The result is a recommended stake percentage that scales your wager according to your perceived edge.
Our Kelly Criterion Calculator simplifies the math for you. Here’s how it works:
The calculator will instantly return:
Let’s say you have a $1,000 bankroll and believe a team has a 60% chance of winning at odds of +150:
But if your win probability is below the break-even point, the Kelly Criterion might recommend no bet at all, helping you avoid -EV wagers.
Traditional betting strategies often overlook the importance of bankroll management. The Kelly Criterion helps you avoid overbetting while ensuring you take full advantage of +EV opportunities.
With our Kelly Criterion Calculator:
Use it before each wager to ensure your betting decisions are backed by math—not just intuition.
What does the Kelly Criterion Calculator do?
It calculates the ideal percentage of your bankroll to stake on a bet, based on your odds and perceived edge, to maximize long-term returns.
How do I calculate Kelly Criterion manually?
The basic formula is: f = (b * p - q), divided by b. Where f = fraction of bankroll to bet, b = odds - 1, p = win probability, and q = 1 - p.
Is the Kelly Criterion safe to use?
It's widely accepted by professionals for managing risk, but using full Kelly can be aggressive. Many bettors prefer fractional Kelly (like 50%) for more conservative staking.
What happens if my edge is negative?
If the calculator returns a negative value, it means the bet has no value - you should skip it. This is one of the biggest benefits of using the Kelly system.
Are you sure?
This will delete all chat history, and I will not remember what we were talking about.
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