Spurs vs Knicks Picks, Props & Odds for NBA Cup Finals
The New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs meet in the NBA Cup Finals in Las Vegas, with bettors focused on the spread, total and key player props.
This preview breaks down the matchup, highlighting why the Knicks are favored, how the total shapes up and which player prop stands out before tipoff.
⏳ 5 mins read
📖 Published: December 18th, 2025
✍️ Updated: December 18th, 2025
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Spurs vs Knicks NBA Cup Finals Preview
The New York Knicks (18-7) and San Antonio Spurs (18-7) will square off in the NBA Cup Finals at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
Let's get into Spurs vs Knicks picks and NBA Cup Finals predictions for Tuesday, December 16, including best bets for the spread, total, and a player prop.
Spurs vs Knicks Picks & Props
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs Knicks | 8:30 p.m. | Knicks -2.5 |
| Spurs vs Knicks | 8:30 p.m. | Over 234 |
| Spurs vs Knicks | 8:30 p.m. | Stephon Castle Under 17.5 Points |
Spurs vs Knicks Odds for NBA Cup Finals
Tuesday, December 16
8:30 p.m. ET
Amazon Prime Video
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs | +2.5 -110 | 234 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Knicks | -2.5 -110 | 234 -110o / -110u | -140 |
Spurs vs Knicks Spread Prediction
Tuesday, December 16
8:30 p.m. ET
Amazon Prime Video
Knicks -2.5
This line is a little bit bonkers. Let’s use some comparisons for it.
The differential between the Knicks and Spurs based on:
- Net rating (net points per 100 possessions): Knicks +4.4
- Non-garbage time net rating per CleaningTheGlass.com: Knicks +6.2
- Schedule-adjusted net rating via DunksAndThrees.com: Knicks +3.2
- Dunks And Threes Projected Differentials: Knicks +3
- Market power rating differential per Inpredictable: Knicks +5.1
- Preseason-priors-weighted power ratings: Knicks +2.8
- In-season power ratings: Knicks +2.8
Yet, this line sits at Knicks -2.5.
You can point to the return of Victor Wembanyama, but there is uncertainty around his minutes limit or any restrictions that may be on him.
When Wembanyama has played, the Spurs have won a lot of games, but the overall performance of the team with him is good, not elite.
Wembanyama still has so much to grow into when it comes to his game.
The Knicks have the better offense and defense, schedule-adjusted. Even with Wembanyama back, that only really pulls the Spurs even.
The Spurs are understandably getting a bump here based on beating Oklahoma City, but there is no proof that it will carry over to this matchup.
Then there is the homecourt factor. There are likely more Knicks fans living in Las Vegas than Spurs fans, making this more of a home game for the Knicks than the Spurs, even if the overall tone is muted.
From a tactical standpoint, San Antonio’s big edge is being able to get downhill with its guards against soft coverage by the Knicks.
The Knicks are a great pick-and-roll defensive team because they contain everything. The Spurs will generate threes; that is the gap for the Knicks, and the Spurs are decent when it comes to volume (15th) and percentage (11th).
The Spurs will score in this game. But while San Antonio’s defense skyrockets to elite with Wembanyama on the floor, the Knicks will counter with Mitchell Robinson and offensive rebounds.
The Spurs may not have the weapons to keep up with the Knicks. They slayed the dragon, but the Knights of San Antonio may fall to the drudge of the Knicks’ middle-management-office-work-like approach.
Pick: Knicks -2.5
Spurs vs Knicks Over/Under Pick
Tuesday, December 16
8:30 p.m. ET
Amazon Prime Video
Over 234
The over is appealing here, with a projected total of 237.
The warning is that the under is 7-1 in games in Las Vegas. The one over came in the last Knicks-Magic game, a reminder that small sample sizes can be misleading.
This projects as an offensive game.
The biggest advantage for the Spurs is getting downhill with their guards and hitting threes against New York.
New York’s biggest advantage is its pick-and-roll offense and ability to generate quality looks.
Neither team has the ability to really contain the bread and butter of the opponent.
This number opened at 227.5 and has been steamed up seven points. It still does not appear to be at the bad point of chasing steam.
The over is attractive up to 236.5.
Pick: Over 234
Spurs vs Knicks Player Prop Bet
Tuesday, December 16
8:30 p.m. ET
Amazon Prime Video
Stephon Castle Under 17.5 Points
The Knicks are the best team in the league at defending shots in the paint, outside of the restricted area.
They play drop defense and shell in isolation to prevent teams from getting to the rim.
Opponents can pull up for floaters and short jumpers, but the Knicks allow them to shoot just 45 percent on shots from that area.
Stephon Castle is second on the Spurs in shots from that area and shoots 47.9 percent, compared to team leader in shots from there, De’Aaron Fox, who shoots 58 percent.
Fox is likely to have more opportunities, while Castle may have fewer in this game.
Pick: Stephon Castle Under 17.5 Points
Spurs vs Knicks Best Bets
- Knicks -2.5
- Over 234
- Stephon Castle Under 17.5 Points
