Georgia vs Alabama SEC Championship Picks, Odds & Prediction

Georgia vs Alabama SEC Championship Preview

Georgia vs Alabama Prediction, Picks & Odds for SEC Championship Today

Caley's prediction: Alabama is flying under the radar but the Crimson Tide looks ready to keep rolling against Georgia.

NCAAF

Dec 06 • 4:00 PM ET

Sound familiar? It’s the Georgia Bulldogs versus the Alabama Crimson Tide for the SEC Championship.

Though both are elite SEC programs, Alabama has dominated the series, winning nine of the last 10 matchups — including the 2021 and 2023 conference title games — and taking this year’s regular-season meeting as well.

Now, Georgia is hunting revenge. The Bulldogs have rattled off eight straight wins since that loss, while Alabama has shown some late-season vulnerability, giving Georgia the edge as the favorite.

However, these Georgia vs. Alabama predictions and college football picks explain why this is creating value with Bama as an underdog on Saturday, December 6.

Georgia vs Alabama Predictions for the SEC Championship

Who will win the SEC Championship?

This should be one of the most exciting and closest games on Championship Saturday, but the lean is toward Alabama.

The Crimson Tide have an elite passing game with Ty Simpson and one of the country’s best receiving rooms. They already got the job done in Athens; now they’ll look to do it in the neutral site in Atlanta.

Georgia vs Alabama Best Bet: Alabama Moneyline (+114)

There aren’t too many opportunities for teams to get revenge like the Georgia Bulldogs have in front of them in the SEC Championship.

Not only will they be able to avenge their only loss of the season, but they will also earn their first-ever win over the Alabama Crimson Tide in this conference championship.

Alabama won that game 24-21 as 2.5-point underdogs with Ty Simpson leading the way, throwing for 276 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.

Since then, Georgia has rattled off eight straight wins. But they haven’t all been pretty, with some close calls against Mississippi and Florida. And while the defense has looked better as the season has gone along, the theme of that Alabama game has run true much of the year.

Good passers can move the ball on this Georgia defense. Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards on the Dawgs back in September. Mississippi’s Trinidad Chambliss went for 263.

Heck, even a bad passer like Arch Manning threw for 251. As a result, the Bulldogs enter this game ranked 55th in defensive success rate on dropbacks.

That’s not where you want to be against Simpson and this Bama offense. With Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, and Isaiah Horton at his disposal, Simpson can pick you apart, which is why Bama ranks 12th in EPA per dropback and 13th in success rate on dropbacks.

So, the question is, why is Alabama still a 2.5-point underdog with the SEC title game being on a neutral (for the most part) site?

The answer is recency bias. Georgia has won eight in a row, while Alabama has stumbled down the stretch. Casual observers will say the Tide needed some luck to win the Iron Bowl, but it was a rivalry game on the road. Things get weird in those spots, and the Tide came out on top.

Then there is the loss to Oklahoma. The Tide massively outgained the Sooners, putting up big numbers against arguably the best defense in the country, and could have easily won a game they lost 23-21.

So, Alabama appears undervalued here, and this game should be closer to a pick’em, but the expectation is that Bama gets the job done and continues its dominance over Georgia.

Georgia vs Alabama Same-Game Parlay

There are a few reasons why this Alabama passing game is so effective. For starters, Ty Simpson has strong accuracy and timing. But he also has great weapons at his disposal.

Everyone knows what Ryan Williams can do, but having guys like Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton out there as well makes them really dangerous, and it’s Horton that stands out.

Horton was a red zone machine for Simpson early in the season, scoring a touchdown in five of Alabama’s first seven games. Then he went quiet for a while before busting out in the Iron Bowl, grabbing three touchdowns. There is appealing value on Horton finding the end zone in the SEC title game.

Now, while Alabama is the pick to win, this game is still expected to be close, and Gunner Stockton has stepped up for Georgia when needed.

Stockton has orchestrated two massive comebacks for the Bulldogs this season against Tennessee and Mississippi and has thrown multiple touchdowns six times this season, including four of his last six games overall. He is capable of doing it again here when his team needs him the most.

Georgia vs Alabama SGP (Core)

Alabama moneyline
Isaiah Horton anytime touchdown
Gunner Stockton Over 1.5 touchdown passes

Our Deep-Ball SGP: Branching Out!

Zechariah Branch has come on strong in the second half of the season, catching 41 balls for 400 yards and two touchdowns.

Georgia vs Alabama SGP (Deep-Ball)

Alabama moneyline
Isaiah Horton anytime touchdown
Gunner Stockton Over 1.5 touchdown passes
Zachariah Branch anytime touchdown

Georgia vs Alabama Game Predictions

Georgia vs Alabama Spread Prediction

With Alabama picked to win the SEC Championship, the Tide are also the choice to cover the spread as underdogs. The passing game is expected to be the difference, but the defense should not be overlooked, having steadily improved to rank ninth in opponent EPA per play and 22nd in defensive success rate.

Georgia vs Alabama Over/Under Prediction

The lean is to the Under in the SEC title game, particularly in the first half. These are two excellent defensive teams, and this game is likely to be played tight early. The first-half Under is preferred due to Kirby Smart's ability to make halftime adjustments, but the matchup overall has the makings of a classic SEC Under.

Georgia vs Alabama Odds

Spread: Georgia -2.5 | Alabama +2.5

Moneyline: Georgia -134 | Alabama +114

Over/Under: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5

Georgia vs Alabama Trend to Know

Alabama has covered the first-half spread in nine of its last 13 games for +4.30 units and a 28% ROI, while Georgia has only covered the first-half spread in four of its last 14 games for -6.51 units and a -40% ROI.