Cowboys vs Lions Picks, Odds & Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

Cowboys vs Lions Game Overview

The Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) and Detroit Lions (7-5) open NFL Week 14 tonight on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for in 8:15 p.m. ET from Ford Field in Detroit, Mich. The game will broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.

The Lions are favored by 3.5 points on the spread (Lions -3.5; +100), with the over/under set at 55.5 (-105o / -115u). The Lions are -175 moneyline favorites; the Cowboys are +145 underdogs.

Let's get into Cowboys vs Lions predictions for Thursday Night Football, which includes picks for the over/under and two props.

Cowboys vs Lions Predictions and Picks

Cowboys vs Lions pick: Under 55.5 (-110).

The best bet is on the total under 55.5.

Cowboys vs Lions Odds

Cowboys Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3.5 -120	55.5 -105o / -115u	+145

Lions Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3.5 +100	55.5 -105o / -115u	-175

Odds are via a major sportsbook, with up-to-the-minute NFL odds available on their main odds page.

Thursday Night Football Preview and Prediction

When the Cowboys Have the Ball

The Cowboys offense continues to play at a high level and helped lead them to a 31-28 win over the Chiefs in a must-win game on Thanksgiving. It was the second straight game in which Dak Prescott threw for 300+ yards as he is taking advantage of having the best wide receiver duo in the NFL right now with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.

The Lions secondary would have seen a huge boost if free safety Kerby Joseph were able to return from his knee injury, which has kept him sidelined since Week 6. He practiced Monday, but he has already been ruled out for tonight’s game, meaning his next possible chance to return is Week 15.

Brian Branch (toe) is listed questionable with a toe injury that he has played through for a few weeks now. He should be expected to play, but if he is ruled out, that would be a massive injury that would likely move the spread down to Cowboys +2.5, and the total could go up 0.5-1 points.

The Cowboys' run game has been solid this year — with Javonte Williams being a pleasant surprise — but they have desperately needed a backup to step up after Miles Sanders’ season-ending toe injury, and with rookie Jaydon Blue being a healthy scratch most weeks.

Malik Davis stepped up in a big way (3/47/1) against the Chiefs. The Cowboys might consider giving him a bit more work going forward to keep Williams fresh and possibly boost efficiency even more.

However, this is a tougher matchup against the Lions’ run defense, led by linebacker Jack Campbell, which ranks seventh in DVOA against the run.

The expectation is that the Cowboys will lean pass-heavy in this matchup, and left tackle Tyler Guyton is out again for this game, meaning Nate Carter will fill in again.

Carter has struggled mightily, allowing pressure on Prescott's blindside, and he was also a liability in the run game last week. There could be a few plays tonight where having a backup left tackle slows the Cowboys offense on key snaps.

Referee Shawn Hochuli’s tendencies could also be a factor in slowing down the Cowboys at key times.

When the Lions Have the Ball

The Lions’ offensive line has been a serious concern over the last few weeks. They have struggled to protect Jared Goff, who was under pressure on 47% of his dropbacks last week, the third-highest rate in Week 13.

It was against the Packers’ pass rush, but the Lions' line has also dealt with injuries, with left guard Christian Mahogany on injured reserve, and Taylor Decker, Kayode Awosika, Graham Glasgow and Penei Sewell all questionable tonight. Everyone could suit up, but if one or two of them are ruled out, especially Sewell, that would be a massive blow.

Frank Ragnow was reportedly attempting to return from retirement, but he failed his physical because of a grade-3 hamstring tear. It was notable that he thought he could return that quickly while dealing with an injury that clearly needed immediate medical attention.

Regardless, the line could be an issue again tonight against a Cowboys defense that has been much improved since adding Quinnen Williams before the trade deadline.

The Cowboys have also upgraded at linebacker, adding Logan Wilson from the Bengals and getting DeMarvion Overshown back from injury. Kenneth Murray Jr. had been struggling this season, so getting much-needed upgrades at linebacker has helped the Cowboys defense.

The Lions’ skill positions are also dealing with uncertainties.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is listed as questionable with a low ankle sprain that knocked him out early in the Thanksgiving game. He has not practiced yet this week, and the team is waiting as long as possible to rule him out.

If this were a Sunday game, that would increase his likelihood to return and play, but on a short week, his status is much tougher to project. He could be closer to doubtful.

Sam LaPorta remains on injured reserve. Backup tight end Brock Wright and third wide receiver and punt returner Kalif Raymond are also out again.

The Lions could be missing a significant number of key offensive players and the current version of the Cowboys defense is much better than their season-long metrics would indicate.

Cowboys vs Lions Best Bet: Total Under 55.5

A previous bet on the first-half under 27.5 for the Cowboys-Chiefs game did not hit last week, but nearly everything went wrong for the first quarter and a half, and it still almost stayed under before a long 43-yard touchdown run with three minutes left in the half sealed it. If the Cowboys had not scored that touchdown and settled for a field goal, it would have stayed under 27.5.

The sun-related angle at AT&T Stadium factored in a couple times — most notably on a potential big play that George Pickens missed and clearly blamed on the sun being in his eyes. That helped slow down each offense at times. Even if a few key factors work in favor of an under, it does not guarantee a game will actually stay under the total.

Both teams played in games that went over in record-setting national TV games on Thanksgiving, including the Chiefs-Cowboys game, which was the most-watched regular-season NFL game ever. The market is expecting a ton of points; the projection also expects plenty of scoring.

The total has reached 54.5, nearly the highest number seen these days. The projection for the total is closer to 53, which shows slight value on the under, but many of the key factors laid out above could help this game sneak under the total.

The officiating crew could play a sneaky part. This game will be officiated by Shawn Hochuli, who is the most profitable under referee since 2021, with the under hitting at a 46-28 (61%) clip in his games for a significant positive return.

Not every trend is treated like gospel — many trends scream louder than their sample size deserves, and most are waiting to regress back toward the average. That said, the 2025 result of 7-5 to the under (58%) still qualifies as a strong signal.

Hochuli's crew has consistently called false starts at a top-five rate nearly every season. This year, they are doing it more than ever, currently averaging 3.3 per game.

The Cowboys, especially in road games with crowd noise, are often the team most impacted by that particular penalty. The Lions' offensive line has been excellent at limiting false starts, but if one or two of their starters are ruled out tonight, it could disrupt their cadence enough for Hochuli’s crew, which has been strict enforcing pre-snap penalties, to call a few more than usual.

The same idea applies to offensive holding calls, another drive-killing penalty, where Hochuli’s games have generally been above average in holding call rates. The Cowboys have committed offensive holding at the fourth-highest rate this year. If Detroit is down a couple offensive line starters, it could create more holding and pre-snap issues than usual.

A couple of extra false start or holding calls do not guarantee the game stays under 54.5, but historically, those are the flags worth monitoring and those are the kinds of small cracks that could slow things down just enough to give the under a shot considering that Hochuli games have gone under at a high rate over the last few years.

The Cowboys' and Lions' red-zone touchdown percentage allowed both rank bottom six on the season. Red-zone touchdown percentage tends to bounce around and often regresses toward the league average over time, so either defense allowing fewer red-zone touchdowns than their current rate is likely going forward.

The total might still soar over 54.5, but there are enough small factors that could tighten things just a bit. If a bettor is holding an over 54.5 ticket, nearly everything needs to go perfectly.

The market is likely going to continue to bet heavily on the over, so this is a game where it can make sense to wait and see if it gets bet up to 55-55.5, as there are not many key numbers in this range and 55 is one of them.

Pick: Under 55.5.

Cowboys vs Lions Player Props

Javonte Williams Under 16.5 Rush Attempts (-121)

Williams has been a pleasant surprise for the Cowboys this season, handling a massive workload for most of the year without a true backup the team could trust.

Last week, Malik Davis posted a solid 3/47/1 line, which makes it possible Dallas uses him more on early downs to keep Williams fresh. This is also a matchup against a pass-funnel Lions defense; the expectation is that the Cowboys will lean on their pass game more, especially with Prescott, Pickens and Lamb all playing at a high level.

Dallas also likes mixing in non-running backs for an occasional rush, so players like Lamb, Hunter Luepke and KaVontae Turpin could quietly chip away at Williams' chances. Turpin had three designed rushes last week, and the team has been dialing up more work for him in the run game in general, which adds another path to lost volume for Williams.

With Turpin and Davis possibly eating into the early down share opportunities, plus the likelihood of more pass-leaning play calls, Williams is projected closer to 15.7 rushing attempts, with about a 60% chance to stay under 16.5.

Every rush attempt in these markets matters a great deal, and Hochuli's staff potentially calling more false starts and holding penalties could negatively impact Williams as well.

The most likely outcome is 15 rushing attempts about 10% of the time. Getting under 16.5 before this drops to 15.5 is considered a key edge. At 15.5, it would be closer to a coin flip.

Amik Robertson Over 3.5 Tackles + Assists (-131)

Amik Robertson has cleared 3.5 tackles plus assists in three games this season, but he was not a full-time player until Week 5. Since becoming a regular, he has only had one plus matchup, Week 6 against the Bengals, where he logged six tackles.

Robertson's schedule since then has been difficult for a cornerback, but he gets a strong spot tonight against the Cowboys, who have supplied, by far, the most tackle opportunities for opposing corners, which makes sense given how much volume funnels through Pickens and Lamb.

The Lions use man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league and Robertson is expected to have plenty of tackle chances on Pickens and Lamb catches. Detroit is also expected to face more completions than its season-long average, giving Robertson even more chances to get to the ball.

This is considered a strong spot. Simulations project Robertson finishing over 3.5 about 70% of the time, with fair odds closer to 4.5 tackles at around -130, suggesting the line of 3.5 is about one full tackle off.