Broncos vs Chiefs Christmas Night Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

Broncos vs Chiefs Predictions, Picks & Best Bets for Christmas Night

The Christmas Day finale in Kansas City features the Denver Broncos visiting the Kansas City Chiefs in a matchup defined by defense and a lopsided spread. With Chris Oladokun starting at quarterback for Kansas City, scoring expectations are muted.

This preview breaks down the best bet on the total, key same-game parlay angles, and how the moneyline and spread shape up for this AFC West clash at Arrowhead Stadium.

Broncos vs Chiefs game overview

Broncos vs Chiefs Predictions, Picks & Best Bets for Tonight's Christmas Day Game

Osborne's prediction: Don't expect much offense in Arrowhead when the Broncos and Chiefs clash on Thursday Night Football on Christmas Night.

Broncos vs Chiefs Predictions, Picks & Best Bets for Tonight's Christmas Day Game

NFL

Dec 25 • 8:15 PM ET

Photo By - Imagn Images. Bo Nix and Travis Kelce headline tonight's action at Arrowhead Stadium.

A 13.5-point spread and Chris Oladokun starting at quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs isn’t exactly what anyone had in mind for the NFL’s Christmas Day finale vs. the Denver Broncos, but tonight's matchup still offers some intriguing betting angles.

My Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions and NFL picks point to the defenses being the driving force on Thursday, December 25.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, with the game airing on Prime Video.

Broncos vs Chiefs prediction

Broncos vs Chiefs best bet: Under 37.5 (-110)

I expect a strong bounce-back from the Kansas City Chiefs defense after its extremely poor showing against the Titans last week, especially given how dominant this unit has been at home, where they allow just 15 points per game.

Unlike last week, I think the effort will be there for the Chiefs given the game situation — it’s their last home game of the season in a standalone spot on Christmas night, with a chance to play spoiler vs. a division rival.

While the defense will have an opportunity to shine, it’s hard to see the Chiefs offense contributing much. They bordered on average at times with Patrick Mahomes, were outright awful with Gardner Minshew, and could take another step back with Chris Oladokun under center.

Oladokun was serviceable in relief during Week 16, but this is a significant jump in competition against a Denver Broncos defense that should also be motivated to respond after an uncharacteristic performance.

The Broncos gave up a season-high 34 points at home to the Jaguars last week, but that outing stands out as an outlier, given that they’ve held eight different opponents below 20 points this season.

That includes limiting a Mahomes-led Chiefs team to 19 points on November 16, and with the top seed in the AFC still up for grabs, Denver’s defense should be aggressive against Oladokun and a watered-down Kansas City offense.

The Broncos defense is elite in several key areas that directly limit scoring opportunities, including having the league’s second-best red-zone defense and the top-ranked third-down defense.

If the total of 37.5 feels low, it’s worth noting that three straight Chiefs games have stayed Under that number, producing an average combined score of just 31.3. Kansas City is on a major Under tear with it hitting in nine of their last 10 games.

Broncos vs Chiefs TNF same-game parlay

Expect Isiah Pacheco to be heavily involved with an inexperienced quarterback at the helm for the Chiefs. Pacheco is coming off a game where he had 75 total rushing and receiving yards.

What really stood out in the performance was a season-high six catches off seven targets. This is a tough spot for the KC offense, so watch for them to keep it simple with a lot of runs and short passes on early downs.

Broncos vs Chiefs SGP (+1115)

Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown
Isiah Pacheco 50+ rushing + receiving yards

Our big-ticket SGP: Fade Oladokun

This is an awful matchup for Oladokun to get his first career start. He'll likely be playing from behind with a lot of third-and-long passing situations.

Denver's defense is coming off a season-worst performance and should be in bully mode with plenty of opportunities to pick one off.

Broncos vs Chiefs SGP (+1830)

Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown
Isiah Pacheco 50+ rushing + receiving yards
Chris Oladokun 1+ interceptions

Broncos vs Chiefs game predictions

Broncos vs Chiefs moneyline prediction

Don’t expect the Broncos to play down to the competition, especially off a tough loss and with the top seed in the AFC still up for grabs.

While Kansas City’s defense can keep things from getting too out of hand, Denver’s offense has more paths to scoring than an Oladokun-led KC squad.

Broncos vs Chiefs spread prediction

The situation points to a max-effort performance from Kansas City’s defense in its home finale on Christmas night after an embarrassing loss.

With the unit allowing just 15 points per game at Arrowhead and Denver’s offense taking a step back on the road, the Chiefs should avoid getting blown out.

Broncos vs Chiefs Over/Under prediction

This profiles as a bounce-back spot for both defenses, where Kansas City should respond at home, and Denver gets back to a pattern where they’ve held eight opponents to fewer than 20 points this season.

Low scores in KC games are becoming the norm, as three straight Chiefs contests have stayed Under 36.5, with an average combined score of just 31.3 in those games.