Both Kalshi and Polymarket, popular predicting platforms, were right: Donald Trump wins the race to the White House for the second time. For weeks, the betting markets were saying that Trump will win - in Kalshi and Polymarket, for instance, Trump was predicted to win by 62% and 66%, respectively.

Former President Donald Trump has clinched a historic return to the White House, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in a fiercely contested race. Trump's victory was officially declared by Fox News late Tuesday evening, marking a dramatic chapter in American electoral history.

The Republican candidate, who previously lost the presidency in 2020, found renewed support across the country, especially in battleground states. Hours after polls closed on Tuesday, key states such as North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Georgia swung in Trump's favor, carving a clear path to his projected win. Combined with victories in traditional Republican strongholds, his path to the required 270 electoral votes became increasingly apparent.

At 10:47 pm Pacific Time, Fox News called the election for Trump, though other major news outlets hesitated to make the call. Despite Harris's efforts, analysts noted that she lacked any feasible way to reach the necessary electoral threshold. In a statement to supporters shortly after the news broke, Trump celebrated his apparent victory.

"We made history for a reason tonight," Trump said to his cheering supporters. "We're going to have a great four years." He went on to describe his vision for a 'golden age' for the United States and predicted he could surpass 315 electoral votes when the final count is completed.

Betting markets vindicated as polls miss the mark

In the months leading up to the election, betting markets had increasingly tilted toward a Trump victory. Last month, betting on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket saw Trump favored by 62% and 66% odds, respectively. Canada's Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation (OLG) also saw the majority of bets placed on Trump, with 52% of the money riding on the former president, compared to only 35% for Harris.

The betting markets' prediction contrasted sharply with many public opinion polls, which had indicated a close race. Just one day before the election, a PBS News poll had Vice President Harris leading with 51% of the likely voter share compared to Trump's 47%. Analysts have noted, however, that the on-the-ground energy for Trump appeared stronger than reflected in traditional polling.

Exit polls released on Tuesday offered further insight into Trump's favorability with voters. According to CNN's national exit polls, only 25% of respondents said they were enthusiastic or satisfied with the current state of the nation. Dissatisfaction was high, with over 40% of voters expressing discontent and 30% describing themselves as angry. Major issues included the economy, rising costs of groceries and healthcare, and concerns over illegal immigration - topics on which Trump has maintained strong, outspoken positions throughout his campaign.

Despite facing significant obstacles, including his loss to President Joe Biden in 2020, two assassination attempts, and several criminal indictments, Trump's resilient campaign ultimately resonated with voters seeking change.

Senate power flips to Republicans, delays in Nevada

Alongside the presidential results, CNN reported that the US Senate also flipped to Republican control, further consolidating conservative power in Washington. This shift promises to reshape the political landscape, offering Trump's administration stronger support for enacting its agenda.

A delay in reporting from Nevada added suspense to the evening's drama. Polling locations in the state were scheduled to close at 7pm PT, but voters faced long wait times in Washoe and Nye counties, which extended the deadline for casting ballots. As of Tuesday evening, Trump was reported to be leading by over 50,000 votes, though the final results were not yet available.

Election officials in Nevada cited unprecedented turnout and logistical challenges as reasons for the delays. The Las Vegas Review-Journal noted that this hold-up was unlikely to alter the broader outcome of the election, but final numbers were still anticipated.

Harris expected to make statement

Vice President Harris's campaign made an announcement that she would address the results. Her run for the presidency came following President Joe Biden's decision to step aside in July under increasing political pressure. Harris's campaign focused on continuing Biden's legacy, with a strong emphasis on progressive policies, climate change, and social justice issues. However, her message struggled to gain traction against Trump's populist appeal and focus on economic issues.