Falcons vs Buccaneers Odds, Predictions & Picks for TNF

Falcons vs Buccaneers Prediction, Picks

Falcons vs Buccaneers pick: Falcons +5.5

My Falcons vs Buccaneers best bet is on the Falcons to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.

Falcons vs Buccaneers Odds

Thursday, Dec. 11

8:15 p.m. ET

Amazon Prime Video

Matchup - 12/12 1:15am UTC	Spread	Total	Moneyline
ATL 4-9	+5.5 -108	o43.5 -110	+225
TB 7-6	-5.5 -102	u43.5 -110	-275

Falcons Odds	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Falcons	+5.5 -108	43.5 -110o / -110u	+225

Buccaneers Odds	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Buccaneers	-5.5 -112	43.5 -110o / -110u	-265

Thursday Night Football Preview, Prediction

When the Falcons Have the Ball

The Falcons’ disappointing season effectively came to an end last week with their 37-9 loss to the Seahawks — Atlanta has been mathematically eliminated from the NFL playoff race.

It happened in typical Falcons fashion. They kept it close — the game was actually tied 6-6 at halftime. Then the second half hit: an opening kickoff return TD by Seattle, a fumble inside the Seahawks’ 20-yard line that turned into a TD the following drive, and a follow-up drive ending with a Kirk Cousins interception. The game went south fast.

The Falcons have had a strange season. They’re 4-9 but have only trailed 35% of the time, which is the 14th-lowest rate in the league. The other three teams that have also trailed exactly 35% of the time are the Bears (9-4), Chargers (9-4) and Dolphins (6-7), which averages out to an 8-5 record. You could easily argue the Falcons have been pretty unlucky to have the record they do.

Atlanta's passing attack is definitely hurting right now with Drake London ruled out again and Kyle Pitts questionable with a knee injury. This is one of the worst WR rooms in the league at the moment, with Darnell Mooney, David Sills V and Dylan Drummond expected to be its top three WRs.

Tampa Bay ranks around league average in defensive pass DVOA (16th), but Bucs cornerback Jamel Dean is healthy and playing at a high level; the Buccaneers also generate pressure at the highest rate in the NFL thanks in large part to blitzing at a top-five rate.

However, Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins has been surprisingly good against the blitz. He has a 115 QB rating with five or more rushers compared to just 60.8 when teams don’t blitz.

Cousins is one of the least mobile QBs in the league and rarely leaves the pocket, so it makes sense that he can thrive if defenses force him to get the ball out quickly. He’s good at diagnosing where the soft spot is when coverage is thinned out.

But this is clearly a game where the Falcons need to attack on the ground with one of the best RB duos in the league in Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.

The Bucs are always solid against the run and rank ninth in defensive run DVOA. However, two key injuries lead me to believe their run defense could take a hit.

Linebacker SirVocea Dennis has been ruled out with a hip injury and safety Tykee Smith is doubtful with neck and shoulder injuries. Both have been huge in run support. Dennis has an elite 2.2% missed-tackle rate (fourth among linebackers) and a 9.3% run stop rate (top 10). Smith’s 6.5% run stop rate ranks second among safeties. Losing both only amplifies the issue.

An interesting twist: it could be backup linebacker Deion Jones stepping into most of Dennis’ snaps (along with John Bullock). Jones is a former Falcon and their first-round pick in 2016, but he has been a liability in run defense.

This is a spot where Tampa Bay’s run defense could take a huge hit, and Atlanta can absolutely attack it with its thunder-and-lightning duo of Robinson and Allgeier behind right guard Chris Lindstrom, who is one of the premier run blockers in the league.

When the Buccaneers Have the Ball

While the Falcons have struggled, the Buccaneers have spiraled since a 6-2 start. They’re 1-4 over their last five games since their Week 9 bye.

The Bucs have dealt with significant offensive injuries all season: missing wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for multiple games, running back Bucky Irving missing most of the season, and left tackle Tristan Wirfs missing last week. But Wirfs has been removed from the injury report and should return tonight; Evans could return tonight as well after being activated from injured reserve.

Even in a limited fashion, it would be the first time all season that Emeka Egbuka, Godwin and Evans are active together. This offense is at least trending up health-wise and could break out of their slump because of it.

The Falcons defense has been roughly league average and ranks 18th in DVOA. They are, however, eighth in pressure rate and trending up thanks to rookie first-rounder James Pearce Jr., who is playing at a very high level right now.

Shortly after he was highlighted on Action Playbook Live as someone popping in sack luck rankings — where pass rushers likely to see sack rates rise or fall are identified — he now has a sack in five straight games. Baker Mayfield could definitely be under pressure tonight — though Wirfs returning will help on that front.

Falcons vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction and Same-Game Parlay

As mentioned earlier, the Falcons have been playing much closer to an 8-5 team than a 4-9 team when you look at how often they keep games close. They are 1-5 in one-score games, and both of their overtime games ended in losses, which means they were technically tied after 60 minutes twice.

Any time a team ends up in that many one-score games, it means they were in near coin-flip situations where one or two bounces could have flipped their record.

Some of that can be blamed on caving under pressure or poor coaching decisions — those factors may still be why they lose close games at a higher rate. But in Atlanta’s case, it appears to be leading the market to overlook them as more of an average team rather than a true bottom-feeder.

This lines up with Luck Rankings that have Atlanta 30th — making them the third-unluckiest team in the NFL — while the Buccaneers are the ninth-luckiest. That makes this a B-rated Luck Ranking game for the Falcons.

That’s a big part of why the points are being taken with Atlanta. The market is underrating them, and even if their season is over, the players are still playing for pride and for future contracts. There’s no reason to think the Falcons will just roll over — especially to a division rival. And if this game follows the Falcons’ season pattern, they’ll play a close one, lose by a few points, and cover the spread.

There are matchup angles the market is overlooking: Tampa Bay’s run defense missing two key players, which sets up the perfect script for Atlanta to lean on the ground game, and the Falcons’ pass rush, led by rookie James Pearce Jr., suddenly becoming a real strength that can disrupt Baker Mayfield.

With Drake London ruled out, and Tristan Wirfs and Mike Evans cleared to return, plus Kyle Pitts still uncertain, money is expected to continue flowing in on Tampa Bay.

This line could move up to 5.5 or even 6; it is unlikely to get down to 4. And even if it moved to 3.5, there would still be access to the key number of 3. There’s almost no scenario where this gets to 3 unless something happens to Mayfield pregame.

In conclusion, the pick is on the Falcons, with a willingness to time the market because most of the action is expected to come in on Tampa Bay from now until kickoff.

Spread Pick: Falcons +5.5; bet to +3.5.

If you are interested in something juicier than just the spread pick, the preferred correlated same-game parlay is the Falcons moneyline plus Kirk Cousins to go under 0.5 rushing yards.

Cousins is scrambling around the same rate as last year at around 0.7% of his dropbacks. He’s had two QB sneaks, and one of those occurred when the Falcons were really backed up and trying to get some breathing room to avoid a potential safety.

The chances of him getting 1+ kneeldowns are viewed as higher than scrambling or QB sneaking for 1+ yards.

If you already like Falcons +5.5, that only increases the chances he gets 1+ kneeldowns, which would bail out the parlay if he does get 1-2 yards earlier in the game.

Falcons vs Buccaneers Player Props

Bucky Irving Under 16.5 Rush Attempts (-119)

Bucky Irving entered his rookie season with expectations that he could push Rachaad White and potentially leapfrog him.

Sure enough, that’s what happened — but he profiled more as a pass-catching specialist, which overlapped with White’s skill set, since White wasn’t very good on early downs. Irving has struggled in his sophomore season, though a lot of that can be chalked up to dealing with nagging injuries and missing multiple games this year.

Irving stepped back into the lead role in his two games since returning, but the inefficiency as a runner has remained. Out of 45 qualified running backs, he ranks second to last in success rate on runs (only ahead of Rhamondre Stevenson).

White ranks second, sandwiched between Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, who rank first and third, respectively. Sean Tucker doesn’t have enough attempts to qualify, but he would be well ahead of Irving — Tucker has always profiled as the better short-yardage back of the group.

The expectation is that the Buccaneers coaching staff continues to tweak their usage and possibly lets White and Tucker see a bit more early down and short-yardage work, while focusing on getting Irving more involved as a pass-catcher, where he’s been elite with a league-high 12.9 yards after catch per reception.

The Buccaneers trended toward the more optimal approach last week. Despite going ultra run heavy in the 24-20 loss to the Saints (39 rush attempts vs. 30 passes), Irving only had 15 carries because it was more of a 60/40 split with White on early downs.

It will be tough for Tampa Bay to rack up nearly 40 carries again tonight against Atlanta in a game where Falcons +4.5 is viewed as the sharp side.

It will also be the first time all season the Bucs have their top four wide receivers fully healthy in Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan. They are projected to be a bit more pass heavy, which involves getting Irving the ball in space in the passing game, and likely keeps White and Tucker involved enough on early downs to cap Irving's upside in this market.

Irving is projected closer to 15.4 rush attempts with around a 61% chance to stay under 16.5.

Antoine Winfield Under 6.5 Tackles + Assists (-105)

Antoine Winfield has only cleared this in 4-of-13 games (31%), and all four came against teams that provided above-average tackle opportunities for safeties.

The Falcons have provided the ninth-fewest, making this a tougher matchup. Winfield is also much more involved in pass-play tackling, and this isn’t a great spot for that as Tampa Bay is projected to face around three fewer completions than usual and about 1.5 more run plays, which hurts Winfield specifically.

However, there are some moving pieces here.

The Bucs are without linebacker SirVocea Dennis (out) and safety Tykee Smith is doubtful. The loss of Dennis could lead to Winfield getting a few extra tackle chances because backup Deion Jones is a huge downgrade. More run plays could get into the open field and expose Winfield to more tackle chances, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he will be the one taking down Bijan Robinson or Tyler Allgeier every time.

If Smith ends up ruled out, it is not certain it helps Winfield. It will likely be Christian Izien filling in, and he has lined up in the box at a very high rate, which would keep Winfield deep more often.

Izien was a tackling machine in that role and racked up eight tackles when he played just under 50% of the snaps last week after Smith went down. Izien could help pick up the slack from Deion Jones playing more and potentially prevent some plays from reaching Winfield.

In the end, Winfield is still expected to mix in on a handful of tackles but ultimately stay just short of this number. He is projected for 5.9 tackles plus assists, with around a 61% chance to stay under 6.5.

Early on, if it looks like Kaevon Merriweather (No. 26) is replacing Smith and not Izien (No. 29), buying out on Winfield’s live market would be considered. If Winfield lines up in the box on the opening drive but doesn’t get a tackle and his live number is around 5.5, there could be an opportunity to middle it and root for him to finish with six exactly.

But if Merriweather is on the opening snap and closer to the line of scrimmage, with Winfield deep, that is the ideal setup for the under.

The fun part of tackle props is that sometimes you can tell on the opening drive, just based on how a player is lining up, whether you are sitting on a winning or losing bet.