The sport of football and Thanksgiving go hand in hand, as everyone loves to watch football while waiting for Thanksgiving dinner. So it's no surprise that analysts have predicted around $4.5 billion in bets this week. The $4.5 billion will more than likely include other sports aside from football - but betting on the NFL will certainly dominate.

As Americans prepare to gather for turkey, pie, and family time, one other quintessential tradition takes center stage: football. The pairing of Thanksgiving and football is undeniably American, and this week, this synergy extends into sports betting. With Thanksgiving Week spanning from November 25 to December 1, US sports bettors are expected to wager a staggering $4.5 billion in regulated markets, according to Chad Beynon, a Macquarie analyst.

This projection represents an 11% year-over-year growth, demonstrating the surging popularity of sports betting. And while some of these wagers will cover other sports like basketball, football - particularly NFL games - will dominate the action, with Thanksgiving football games acting as a key driver.

Football betting boom expected to break records

Football remains the most wagered-on sport in the US, and Thanksgiving this year marks a significant milestone, especially since 38 states and Washington, DC now permit some kind of sports wagering. Analysts anticipate betting volumes to surge to up to 15% compared to the previous year, fueled by a robust lineup of games throughout the week.

NFL fans have plenty to cheer about with three games scheduled for Thanksgiving Day, and the Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Las Vegas Raiders on Black Friday. College football is also playing its part, with games peppered across the week, including more than a dozen on Friday alone.

Thanksgiving football games have taken on a primetime feel, comparable to Monday Night Football. According to Macquarie's research, such high-profile matchups tend to attract outsized betting interest. On the 12th week of the NFL season, for instance, primetime games made up 37% of total bets and 10% of the handle - a trend expected to hold during Thanksgiving.

Winners among operators

The anticipated surge in Thanksgiving Week wagering bodes well for the gaming industry as a whole, but some operators are poised to benefit more than others. Market leaders like FanDuel and DraftKings continue to dominate in terms of market share. However, Beynon highlights smaller competitors, including Bally's, Caesars Sportsbook, and Rush Street Interactive, as likely to see significant year-over-year growth in Thanksgiving Week betting activity.

BetMGM, another key player, has recently reported above-average hold rates exceeding 11% over the past two weeks, suggesting potential upside if this trend persists. Additionally, the November data in New York through the 18th indicates that Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings are making notable market share gains.

The broader market appeal

Thanksgiving football isn't just a win for sportsbooks - it's also a catalyst for the equities tied to sports betting. Beynon is bullish on stocks with strong connections to online gaming, including DraftKings, Caesars Entertainment, Rush Street Interactive, and ESPN Bet's parent, Penn Entertainment.

"We favor Online for two reasons: 1) it is the only major Gaming sector not dependent on the economy for double-digit growth; and 2) it is the only Gaming sector that has consistently exceeded market expectations over the past two years," wrote Beynon. Macquarie projects fourth-quarter gross gaming revenue growth of 23% across online sports betting and iGaming, with a 2025 GGR forecasted to climb by 18% year-over-year. The online segment's growth trajectory continues to outpace traditional brick-and-mortar gaming.

A Thanksgiving feast of football and betting

For many Americans, Thanksgiving is a time to indulge in food, family, and tradition. Increasingly, it's also becoming a time to embrace sports betting, particularly on football. This week's slate of NFL and college games promises not only entertainment but also record-breaking betting activity.

As Thanksgiving football marks its primetime status, sportsbook operators are undoubtedly reaping the rewards of heightened engagement. With an expected $4.5 billion in wagers, this Thanksgiving will further cement the relationship between America's favorite sport and its growing betting industry.