Backcourt Domination: Why Guards Remain the Future of the NBA

Defining Generational Talent

A lot of players come and go. There are a total of at least 60 players drafted into the NBA on an annual basis – and that does not take undrafted player signings into account as well. This just means that there’s a lot to expect from the league night in and night out, and the draft is a mere tip of the iceberg of the talents that come into the NBA with the hopes of making a name for themselves.

However, there are plenty of players that come and go, but only a few go on to leave a lasting legacy behind, which says a lot about how the NBA has been really proof that there is indeed greatness from all over the world. It used to be a game defined by Americans, but now the show is run mostly by foreign players, which says a lot about the huge presence of diversity in the league at this point in time.

Still, we all know the talks by now: Michael Jordan and LeBron James. Yes – the late Kobe Bryant is great, but we all know that the talk of the game is going to be between MJ and The King. But what I’m trying to point out here is that the greatest-of-all-time comes full circle between positions, and that’s to conclude that the NBA is dominated by guards.

Now I know what you are going to say, LeBron is a forward – but he did play a huge role in influencing the point-forward dynamic right? MJ is a pure shooting guard, and so is Kobe – the top three names of the sport are all guards – or at least capable of doing so for the case of LeBron James.

Is the NBA Dominated by Guards?

So let’s not jump to conclusions just now. Sure, some of you will say that Victor Wembanyama will be the face of the league soon enough considering that he has been selected for the 2025 NBA All-Star Game. Yes, of course, given time, Wemby will surely ascend into one of the league’s stars.

But we’re talking about names who are going to be the frontrunners for the MVP, leading their respective teams to bigger heights, and there are multiple talking points to consider that will eventually make you believe that guards are the future of the league. So let’s dive right into it.

Most Rookie of the Year Wins By Position

Ever since the Rookie of the Year award was given out in the 1953 season, data shows that guards have dominated the scene with the only position to have 20-plus wins for decades. Forwards and forward-centers take the second spot in the rankings with 14 apiece. So far, this has been a huge statement – that guards do really dominate the scene, and if you combine the pure guards and the combo guards (players who can also play the small forward position), then we would have a whopping total of 34 guards who have won the Rookie of the Year Award.

The NBA is ever-changing, and we have seen players adapt and change their styles – and centers and forwards have adopted abilities to play all positions, hit jump shots, and handle the ball well. Guards have won the Rookie of the Year Award 31.94% of the time, which says a lot about how guards often win the ROTY. This year’s leading candidate? San Antonio Spurs’ Stephon Castle – a point guard.

Rookie of the Year Winners (Last Decade)

The last 10 years have been solid proof of guard dominance as well. Sure, the last three winners were forwards and a center, but so far, the past decade has been run by guards. Andrew Wiggins is a forward, but a guard secondly. Malcolm Brogdon went on to win in 2016-17, followed by star guards such as Ben Simmons (2017-18), Luka Doncic (2018-19), Ja Morant (2019-20), and then LaMelo Ball (2020-21).

Overall, half of the rookies who won ROTY are guards, and it cannot be denied that it is enough to display the dominance of guards in the past decade. Three out of the last five guards who won ROTY have become All-Stars in their own right, and let’s not forget the fact that other guards in their draft classes have also been selected as All-Stars.

Guard Dominance: What Does it Say About the Future of the NBA?

Well, there’s more data to offer about how guards have been really dominant nowadays. For starters, let’s not forget Stephen Curry – the man who changed the game in the 2010s and is still one of the best players in the game thanks to his impressive three-point shooting. Ja Morant was the continuation of the Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook high-flying guards archetype, and the list goes on.

For instance, let’s take a peek at the latest odds in the 2024-25 MVP Race:

NBA 2024-25 MVP Odds (Updated as of February 19, 2025)

Now, let’s not get ahead of ourselves by saying that the race to the MVP itself is dominated by forwards and centers. Yeah, of course, but if you take a closer look at the numbers, you can spot that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander himself is having a massive MVP season for the Oklahoma City Thunder – a team that has finished with the best record in the NBA (tied with the Cleveland Cavaliers) at 44-10, and the difference between the odds says a lot as well.

Sure, Jokic is putting up MVP numbers ala Russell Westbrook in 2017; Wembanyama is having an unprecedented season, and both Giannis and Tatum are showing up at a massive level for their respective teams, but that does not trump nor put a dent on what SGA has been able to do for the Thunder at this point in time.

Let’s take a look at his stats:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Stats (Updated prior to 2025 All-Star Break)

If you take a look at these numbers, these are eerily similar to Kevin Durant’s MVP season in 2014, who played for the Thunder at the time. Furthermore, SGA is the only player aside from Michael Jordan to average 30+ ppg, 5+rpg, and 5+apg on 50% shooting in a season – which says a lot about how greatness has been seen from him so far.

On top of that, SGA is leading the NBA both in total points scored and scoring average. He is also the only player to have multiple 50-point games this season, and is in the top five in steals and stocks (steals and blocks combined) per game this year. That is a touch of an MVP case, and that’s a dominant stretch for a guard for a WHOLE SEASON.

Will NBA Guards Continue to Dominate the League?

The next generation of superstars is likely to come from this position, further solidifying the guard-driven era that’s already in full swing.

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