2026 Gambling Sector Predictions: Regulation and Compliance

2025 as a Turning Point for Global Gaming

Sector stalwarts reflect on a challenging year for gaming and how current trends across regulation and compliance might play out into the next year.

If 1992 was Queen Elizabeth II’s annus horribilis, 2025 could certainly be described in a similar way by the global gaming industry. Beaten down by tax increases (or the threat thereof), political pressures, waning public perception and even US tariffs, it’s been a tough year. Yet somehow, it’s been a bumper year for M&A and a promising one for Brazil as the regulation of betting heralded a huge new opportunity for growth.

Reflecting on this year’s turbulence, stakeholders and leading CEOs are predicting similar themes will continue in the short term. Global gaming groups formed this year through seismic deals will change the outlook for market share division in key markets next year, and the continued opening up of African markets will surely provide even more opportunity as many scramble to diversify away from Europe and the US. Of course, something could happen to change the course of gaming forever, but we’ll have to wait and see.

iGB has prepared a comprehensive outlook for key topics in gaming in 2026, including compliance and regulation, M&A trends, and an insight into what shareholders are most concerned about for leading operators over the next year.

How Will Regulation and Compliance Evolve in 2026?

Undoubtedly the biggest pain point for 2025 has been the changing tides of regulation as markets globally have tightened their grip amid political discourse and a weakened reputation for gaming. The trend is likely to continue into this year, but where the focus will lie is uncertain. Some experts believe compliance for suppliers will be at the forefront of policy updates, while other foresee regulatory fragmentation lessening in maturing markets like Africa.

Jesper Svensson, Operational CEO, Betsson Group

Which markets do you expect to explode in 2026 and beyond? The biggest shift from a regulated market perspective would come if one of the major unlicensed jurisdictions decides to open up – whether that’s a large Asian country or a significant US state. If that happens, the sheer scale of those populations could supercharge the market. We’ll continue to see steady momentum in emerging regions like LatAm and Africa, where regulation and infrastructure are developing at pace.

We’re seeing a shift in 2025 into regulated crypto casinos. How do you expect this vertical to evolve? It’s already evolving, as regulation starts catching up with user behaviour. This is a natural progression as both the technology and the regulatory landscape continue to mature. Crypto adoption is high in many markets, and that’s increasingly extending into entertainment and gaming. As regulatory clarity improves – with frameworks like MiCA in Europe and similar efforts in other regions – we’ll likely see broader, more structured adoption over time.

The trajectory of tightening regulations could strangle the sector out of Europe; do you see a way out of this? In the short term, probably not. But over the medium to long term, I think regulators will have to adapt to the reality of the markets they’ve helped create. At the moment, many jurisdictions still lack the tools, capabilities and understanding to properly tackle challenges like black market activity. That’s not necessarily due to lack of intent, but rather a gap in enforcement resources and expertise. I don’t see that improving significantly in 2026.

What does the future of novel verticals look like from a regulatory perspective? Regulation usually follows innovation rather than leading it. As these emerging formats mature, regulators are increasingly taking notice, and we’re already seeing clear movement in that direction.

Several US states, including Nevada, New York and Maine, have taken action against unlicensed online sweepstakes operations, signalling a broader shift towards bringing these models under formal oversight. I expect that by 2026 more jurisdictions will take a definitive stance: either these products are integrated into existing gaming frameworks or they lose the ability to operate altogether. It’s a question of when, not if.

That doesn’t mean the end of these models. In fact, we’re already seeing prize draw and prediction platforms exploring licensing routes to operate more transparently. Over time, that’s a positive step. It ensures that consumers enjoy the same safeguards regardless of the gaming format.

Charmaine Hogan, Global Head of Government Relations, Playtech

Which markets do you expect to explode in 2026 and beyond? We expect substantial growth across LatAm, with regulated markets expanding, others progressing toward regulation and others in exploratory stages.

Jurisdictions in Europe and emerging markets such as Alberta, New Zealand, Ireland, Chile, Finland and the UAE present significant opportunities in 2026 and beyond. These markets, particularly where regulatory frameworks are being built from scratch, allow operators and suppliers to engage early with local authorities and help shape sustainable ecosystems.

Has the US stalled? The US market operates at different levels of maturity, and while state expansion has slowed, existing markets continue to grow. Several states remain possibilities for 2026 and beyond, such as Indiana, Ohio, Maryland, Hawaii, Georgia, Virginia and Massachusetts.

Legalisation may be challenging, yet the educational gap continues to be bridged. Growth continues through different mechanisms, rather than geographic expansion, with states facing budget shortfalls though as 2026 is a mid-term election year.

How viable is Southeast Asia for online gambling? Progress has been uneven across the region. The Philippines has been key in taking control of online gambling, improving regulation and transparency, as well as positioning itself closer to gambling regulatory frameworks in other regulated markets. The region has relatively young, tech-savvy populations and a strong mobile and payment infrastructure. Within the broader region, Sri Lanka is another jurisdiction moving gradually towards a regulated online gambling market.

We’re seeing a shift in 2025 into regulated crypto casinos. How do you expect this vertical to evolve? Regulated crypto casinos depend on coordination with financial authorities and legitimate forms of payment. There are multiple layers of risk to be considered, including KYC/ AML, sources of funds/ verification and traceability. It’s a mix of waiting for this to mature, before elaborating appropriate rules that address all key challenges, including illegal gambling opportunities, consumer demand and cohorts.

Andrew Klebanow, Principal, Klebanow Consulting

Which global gaming markets could explode in 2026 and beyond? The gaming industry is paying close attention to Brazil. It’s the latest country to announce that it may revise its gaming regulations for land-based casinos. Development in Brazil may offer a range of options, from local-oriented casinos to full-scale integrated casino resorts in or near major cities. Experts in that market believe that Brazil may grant upwards of 25 licences. Each state will have the right to at least one IR licence with São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro having as many as three permissions granted.

How viable is Southeast Asia for online gambling? Residents in countries throughout Southeast Asia have long had access to online gambling. Online gambling in Asia dates back to the early 2000s when gaming hubs were established in Cagayan Province in the Philippines. Those evolved into POGOs under President Duterte but have recently been abolished.

Coinciding with the abolishment of POGOs was the establishment of PIGOs, which allowed Filipinos to wager online. PIGO revenues are growing and are having a material impact on brick-and-mortar casinos.

Online gambling hubs can also be found in other Southeast Asian nations but mostly operate outside any regulatory authority. I do not see any country moving forward in 2026 with establishing a legal framework that will fully legitimise these enterprises.

Steve Ketteley, Partner, Wiggin UK

What was the biggest compliance challenge for the sector in 2025? How might that develop in 2026? When you look at mature regulated markets such as the UK, one of the starkest challenges for the industry is how to find the balance between consumer protection and consumer freedom. This is the age-old challenge for any regulatory framework and, as we see the output of the UK gambling white paper flowing into regulation, there must now be a proper evaluation of the effectiveness of the system overhaul.

A potential result may be that elements of regulatory constraint (particularly around marketing and product presentation) may warrant relaxation when one takes into account the development of financial vulnerability/risk checks.

What does the future of novel verticals look like from a regulatory perspective? Innovative product evolution is a constant challenge for regulators and is good news for lawyers. I would say that sweeps and predictions have a relatively limited future outside the US, for sure. As incumbents opt to export them around the world, we will see significant regulatory intervention. The operators of those products need to do their homework or face a shock when gambling regulators point out they are sailing in the black market.

Policymakers have yet to crack enforcement of the black market. What’s the solution? Whack-a-mole enforcement is here to stay, sadly. Regulators are faced with sophisticated criminal organisations who will do anything to circumnavigate any constraints that may be imposed on them. The black market is never going away and is getting more sophisticated in its approach.

We’re seeing a pivotal shift in 2025 into regulated crypto casinos. How do you expect this vertical to evolve? When one looks at the UK, the largest single regulated online jurisdiction, it is notable that there are currently no operators that offer crypto as a payment method, let alone offer a crypto casino. We do envisage there to be some movement here in 2026, particularly to curb the undeniable risk that younger, tech-savvy customers will simply flow into the unregulated market. Collaboration between regulators and governments will be key, but we would suggest there is an element of urgency.

Peter Kesitilwe, CEO, Africa iGaming Alliance

Which African markets do you expect to explode in 2026 and beyond? South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana are the markets most likely to accelerate strongly in 2026 and beyond. South Africa continues to dominate the continent’s regulated gambling landscape, with robust betting growth and clearer national policy taking shape. Kenya’s disciplined regulatory tightening, coupled with its world-class mobile-money penetration, makes it one of the most agile markets on the continent. Ghana is also emerging as a high-confidence market thanks to reforms strengthening responsible gambling, consumer verification and AML oversight.

We expect to see deeper regional cooperation between regulators, greater adoption of AI-powered responsible gambling tools, stronger tax modelling to support channelisation, and significant investment in real-time monitoring and enforcement technology.

In which markets do you expect growth to slow in 2026? Growth is likely to slow in markets where sudden or distortionary tax policies undermine operator competitiveness and push consumers towards unregulated channels. Malawi’s aggressive changes to winnings taxation and levies will dampen regulated activity. Tanzania’s multilayered tax structure continues to strain both land-based and online operators, slowing growth despite rising consumer interest.

Parts of South Africa may also experience slower progress due to provincial fragmentation and inconsistent enforcement capacity. Regulated growth may stall, but consumer activity typically shifts to offshore platforms rather than declining overall.

Are current regulations and infrastructure sufficient to support a big influx of operators? The overall regulatory environment is uneven, but the trajectory is positive. Several markets, including South Africa, Kenya, Ghana, Botswana and Nigeria already operate close to global standards, offering strong compliance frameworks and increasingly sophisticated monitoring capabilities. Others are still developing the foundational elements required such as digital oversight systems, centralised data platforms and modern AML guidelines.

What’s been the biggest compliance challenge for the sector in Africa during 2025? How do you see that developing into 2026? Africa’s biggest compliance challenge in 2025 has been tax volatility. Sudden increases in withholding taxes, shifts to turnover-based taxation and the introduction of new levies have created instability for licensed operators. These abrupt changes often distort price competitiveness and accelerate the migration of customers to unregulated platforms. In 2026, the issue will evolve to tax correction. More governments are now adopting a more evidence-based approach.

Policymakers have yet to crack enforcement of the black market. What’s the solution? Black-market growth is primarily fuelled by high taxes, friction in the regulated market and gaps in payment oversight. To counter this, regulators must align fiscal policies with consumer behaviour, deploy real-time payment monitoring systems, and establish structured cross-border intelligence sharing. AI-led fraud and illegal-operator detection will also play a central role.

Part two of three tomorrow will continue to make predictions on the compliance and regulatory landscape for gaming this year, and consider which M&A trends may continue in 2026.