Even though betting on the odds of an American pope were very long, several bettors made the right choice - and earned over $50,000 in the process. These six bettors used the prediction platform Polymarket and made a minimum of $20K on their wagers. The leader of the six made an astonishing $63,650.65 off a $1,000 bet – a whopping 6,000 ROI.

In an unexpected turn of events, a handful of savvy gamblers earned life-changing payouts after wagering on Robert Francis Prevost as the next pope - a candidate considered a major longshot just hours before his surprise selection. The unexpected election sent shockwaves through online prediction markets and delivered outsized profits to a few well-positioned bettors.

Massive payouts on long odds

On the blockchain prediction platform Polymarket, a handful of users - a mere six - walked away with profits of more than $20,000 each after betting on Prevost, according to public data available on the site's decentralized ledger. Topping the leaderboard was a user with the handle 'JustPunched', who turned a modest $1,059.52 wager into an astounding $63,650.65 profit - an ROI of over 6,000%.

Rival platform Kalshi also saw one of its users strike gold, turning a mere $526 bet into a whopping $52,641 payout. The outsized returns came thanks to Prevost's slim odds going into the final hours of the papal conclave. As of 12 pm EDT on Thursday, Prevost's implied chances of being selected stood at just 1.6% on Kalshi and 1.8% on Polymarket.

In practical terms, that meant a $170 bet placed at midday would have yielded a staggering $10,000 return if placed on Prevost.

$40 million in papal betting volume

The surprise election contributed to unprecedented interest in betting on religious leadership. Combined, Kalshi and Polymarket saw $40.4 million in total betting volume on their papal markets - an indicator of both growing enthusiasm and financial risk in the emerging world of political and cultural prediction markets.

Not everyone emerged victorious, of course. On Polymarket alone, a minimum of nine users lost more than $10,000 each after backing the heavy favorite, Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy, who was widely seen as the frontrunner leading into the final hours of the conclave.

From Chicago to the Vatican

The new pope, Robert Francis Prevost, hails from Chicago and is a graduate of Villanova University. At 69, he has become the first American to ascend to the papacy - an outcome few predicted, even among seasoned Vatican watchers. His victory marks a major departure from tradition and is already sparking both celebration and controversy across global Catholic circles.

Prevost's election marks a notable moment not just for the Church but for the evolution of political prediction markets, where people now regularly wager on major news events.

Prediction markets on the rise

Both Kalshi as well as Polymarket rose to greater prominence during the 2024 US presidential election. The platforms gained attention for their sharp divergence from polling-based models, with both leaning more heavily toward a Trump victory than traditional forecasts. Their growing popularity reflects a wider shift toward 'wisdom of crowds' approaches in political forecasting. Kalshi, in particular, has high-profile backers, including billionaires Charles Schwab and Henry Kravis as well as Donald Trump Jr., who actually serves as a strategic adviser to the firm.

As these platforms continue to grow, the papal election has become their latest proof point: real-time, decentralized betting markets can sometimes outmaneuver conventional wisdom - and handsomely reward those willing to take the boldest risks.