As the College of Cardinals meet on Wednesday at the conclave, the betting odds for the new pope shifts as well. In the US, you can't bet on who will be the next pope, except if you go to prediction market platforms like Kalshi - but in Canada, you can, and BetMGM says that a clear frontrunner is Italy's Pietro Parolin at +225, the Vatican Secretary of State. He is followed by the Philippines' Luis Antonio Tagle at +300 and another Italian, Matteo Maria Zuppi, at +600.

The Catholic Church may soon have a new leader, as the College of Cardinals convenes in the Sistine Chapel on Wednesday to begin the secretive conclave that will elect the next Pope. As global attention shifts to the Vatican, the betting markets are buzzing with speculation, with Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin emerging as the early favorite.

Historic conclave begins

The conclave - a centuries-old tradition shrouded in secrecy - will see 133 cardinals under the age of 80 gather behind the closed doors of the 15th-century Sistine Chapel. The cardinals will engage in rounds of deliberation and voting until a candidate receives the required two-thirds majority.

A new pope could be chosen in a matter of hours, or the process could stretch on for days or even weeks. Until white smoke rises from the chapel chimney, indicating a successful vote, the world can only guess who the next leader of the Catholic Church will be.

Betting markets put Parolin ahead

While the US prohibits betting on papal elections, Canadian and European bookmakers have opened up odds - and a clear frontrunner has emerged. Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Italy's Secretary of State and a high-ranking Vatican diplomat, leads the pack.

According to sportsbook BetMGM Canada, Parolin's odds have strengthened from +250 to +225. He currently holds the highest share of wagers, with 23.3% of all bets and 32.4% of the total money wagered backing him to be the next Pope.

Close behind is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, often described as 'the Asian Pope Francis' for his pastoral style and reform-minded views. Tagle sits at +300. Another Italian, Cardinal Matteo Maria Zuppi, known for his advocacy on social justice, follows at +600.

Despite some speculation, the odds remain slim for the election of the first American Pope. The most favored American candidate in the betting markets is Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke at +3300, followed by New York’s Timothy Dolan and Dallas-based Kevin Farrell, both at +5000. With those odds, the possibility of an American Pope appears remote - at least according to the bookmakers.

Prediction markets reflect a tight race

Outside of traditional sportsbooks, prediction markets are also heating up. On Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform, Parolin leads with a 26% chance of winning, based on a trading volume of $1.19 million. Tagle trails closely at 23% with a larger volume of $1.4 million, while Zuppi holds a 10% chance with over $865,000 in trades.

Kalshi, another forecasting platform, shows nearly identical figures: Parolin with 26% followed closely by Tagle with 22%, and finally, Zuppi at 10%.

David Merry, a UK-based BetVictor trader, noted that interest in papal betting has been lively, at least across the Atlantic. "Pope betting has been popular in the UK but zero bets so far from Canada. Thirty different cardinals have been backed so far. Peter Turkson is the most popular - he started at 10/1 and is now 11/2. We have a £20 stake limit so all small bets."

The world watches and waits

As the cardinals prepare for the solemn task ahead, the world waits with bated breath. While betting markets and predictions may offer clues, the final decision will remain sealed until the smoke signals otherwise. One thing is certain: when the conclave doors close on Wednesday, only the Holy Spirit - and 133 cardinals - will have a say in who becomes the next Pope.