Dolphins vs Steelers Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Monday Night Football

Dolphins vs Steelers prediction and best bet

Dolphins vs Steelers Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Tonight's Monday Night Football Game

Inglis' prediction: Tagovailoa's cold-weather struggles continue.

Josh Inglis • Betting Analyst

Dec 15, 2025 • 17:05 ET • 4 min read

NFL

Dec 15 • 8:15 PM ET

It's going to be a cold night in the Steel City when the Miami Dolphins take their Florida vibes up north to face the Pittsburgh Steelers, who enter as a field-goal favorite in the NFL odds.

My Dolphins vs. Steelers predictions explain why Tua Tagovailoa will be unable to break free from his track record of crumbling in the frost.

Read more in my NFL picks for Monday, December 15, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Dolphins vs Steelers best bet

Dolphins vs Steelers Best bet: Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 interceptions (-110)

Betting the Over on Tua Tagovailoa’s interception prop makes a lot of sense this week, and the cold-weather angle isn’t just noise — it’s one of the most reliable splits in football. The narrative surrounding Tua in freezing conditions may feel overstated, but the numbers back it up. He’s 1-8 SU in games with kickoff temperatures at 46°F or colder, and the Miami Dolphins offense has struggled badly in those spots, averaging only 16.4 points.

It's going to be 20 degrees in Pittsburgh on Monday night.

In sub-40 games alone, Tua has thrown eight touchdowns against nine interceptions, with a noticeable dip in accuracy and efficiency. His completion rate drops from 68% in comfortable weather to roughly 58% in the cold, and his yards per attempt fall from 8.2 to 6.1.

Miami has leaned heavily on the run lately, but that may not hold Monday night, as the last three quarterbacks this team has faced have allowed a lot of positive game script. De’Von Achane has been limited in practice, and if Miami’s run game stalls early, Tua will have to shoulder more of the offense. That’s where mistakes can pile up. When he’s forced to throw deep, things get even shakier: he ranks 28th in deep-ball completion rate, and his 18 interceptable passes thrown this season are the second-most in the league.

Yes, Tua finally snapped his cold-weather slump with a turnover-free win vs. the Jets earlier this month, but even in that game, he threw for only 86 yards and avoided risk at all costs. If Miami is pushed into a higher pass rate this time, the opportunities for a turnover are going to be there. This is a strong spot to play the Over.

Dolphins vs Steelers same-game parlay angles

Dolphins vs Steelers MNF same-game parlay

We're headed for another Miami meltdown late in the season with the mercury dropping. It's a battle of old vs. cold as Aaron Rodgers doesn't need to do too much and let the Dolphins hand them the game. The Dolphins have been very lucky with a game script that has helped them protect their QB, but Monday night might look different. Tua Tagovailoa is a bad deep-ball QB and even worse in the cold. It's not a public narrative; it's the truth.

• Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 interceptions
• Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 passing TDs
• Steelers -3

Our big-ticket SGP: Steeltown showdown

If the Dolphins are forced to pass, Jaylen Waddle will be the busiest of all pass catchers, especially if De'Von Achane is not 100 percent. Pat Freiermuth will have a bigger role this week with Darnell Washington still in concussion protocol as of Friday.

• Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 interceptions
• Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 passing TDs
• Jaylen Waddle Over 4.5 receptions
• Pat Freiermuth touchdown

Dolphins vs Steelers game predictions

Dolphins vs Steelers moneyline prediction

Tua is 1-8 SU in cold-weather games, and that one win came last year in December vs. the Jets, where the QB still threw for under 100 yards. I don't love the Steelers, but this is a bad spot for the Dolphins, who have had a layup of a schedule over the last three games.

Dolphins vs Steelers spread prediction

This spread is jumping between the three and 3.5, and this will likely close at 3.5 closer to Monday. If Achane is out, the Dolphins will have to rely on Tua, and that is never a good thing, as his deep-ball passing is already awful, and the cold weather doesn't help him. In Tua's eight losses in 46-degree weather or colder, he has lost by a TD or more in six of them and by double digits four times. The preference is for the Steelers here at -3.

Dolphins vs Steelers Over/Under prediction

This total was 44.5 on the lookahead, reopened at 43.5, and has been bet down to 41.5 as of Friday. If bettors are taking this Under because of the Tua narrative, it is already priced in. Two-way scoring could be hard to find in this game as both teams are some of the lowest aDOT passing teams. The lean is Under.

Dolphins vs Steelers odds

Dolphins vs Steelers betting trend to know

Tua Tagovailoa is 1-8 SU in his career in games with kickoff temperatures at 46 degrees or below.

How to watch Dolphins vs Steelers

Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA

Date: Monday, December 15, 2025

Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Dolphins vs Steelers weather

Fans will want to dress in plenty of layers for tonight's game at Acrisure Stadium, as temperatures will hover around the mid-teens to low 20s °F at kickoff, with cloudy skies and periodic light snow or flurries possible.

That combination tends to tilt games toward defense and the run game: cold air and a harder football can increase drops and fumbles, and any flurries or slick spots can make cuts and routes less crisp. Kicking can also get trickier in the cold, and if it gets breezy, which can change late-game decision-making on field goals versus going for it.

More Dolphins vs Steelers coverage

Additional analysis is available on Dolphins vs. Steelers props, anytime touchdown scorer picks, same-game parlays, computer projections, and Aaron Rodgers odds and props, along with broader Monday Night Football odds.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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