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Bookmakers on key online betting platforms have poured millions into bets on the key events in 2026, including the midterm elections, potential U.S. military engagement in Venezuela, the appointment of the next Fed chair and the winners of the 2026 Super Bowl and FIFA World Cup.

Bookmakers on online betting markets are staking millions on some major predictions for 2026.

Key Facts: Politics And Geopolitics

Midterm Elections

Mid-Term Elections: Bookmakers on the crypto betting platform Polymarket believe the Democrats have a 78% chance of taking back control of the House after the 2026 midterms, while bettors on Kalshi give them a similar 74% odds of winning.

The bettors, however, still believe that the Republicans remain favorites to retain control of the U.S. Senate, with their Polymarket odds at 66% and Kalshi odds at 68%.

Government Shutdown Risk

Another Government Shutdown: Odds of another government shutdown at the end of January appear slim on the betting markets, with Polymarket bookmakers giving it only a 28% chance—down from 38% earlier in December.

Next Fed Chair

Fed Chair: Bets on who will be appointed as the next Federal Reserve chair have hit more than $80 million in trading volume across both Kalshi and Polymarket, with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett emerging as the bookmakers’ favorite with 56% and 53% odds, respectively.

Military Action In Venezuela

Military Action in Venezuela: Bettors on Polymarket believe the odds of a military confrontation between the U.S. and Venezuela are rising, suggesting a 39% chance by the end of January and a coin-flip 52% chance by the end of March.

In a related bet, bettors also believe Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro’s grip on power is weakening, with Polymarket predicting that there is a 56% chance he is out by the end of 2026, while Kalshi bookmakers predict there is a 56% chance he could be out by May.

Major Sports Betting Markets For 2026

Super Bowl 2026

On Polymarket, the Los Angeles Rams are tipped as the favorite to win the Super Bowl, with bookmakers placing their winning odds at 16%, ahead of the Seattle Seahawks’s 13%.

The trading volume on bets on the winner of the 2026 Super Bowl—including resolved bets for teams that have failed to make the playoffs—has topped more than $620 million on the crypto betting site.

The Rams (18%) and Seahawks (16%) are also the top two bettors' picks on Kalshi’s market, where trading volume has topped $50 million.

2026 FIFA World Cup

For the FIFA World Cup, which is set to be hosted in North America next year, Spain has emerged as the slight favorite on Polymarket, with bettors giving them a 15% chance of winning, followed by England and France both at 13%.

Spain also tops Kalshi’s list with bettors giving it a 17% chance of winning, followed by England and France at 14% and 13% respectively.

Oscar Betting Odds

Bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket believe that Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” is a firm favorite to win the Best Picture Prize at the Oscars next year.

On Polymarket, bookmakers predict the Leonardo DiCaprio-led film has a 78% chance of winning the Academy Award, followed by “Marty Supreme” at 8% and “Hamnet” at 6%.

The film has similar winning odds of 77% on Kalshi, followed very distantly by “Marty Supreme” (10%) and “Sinners” (9%). Trading volumes for the best picture prize have crossed $7 million on Polymarket and $4.2 million on Kalshi.

Tangent: Bets Tied To GTA 6 Release

The video game Grand Theft Auto 6 is one of the most anticipated upcoming entertainment product releases in years, and it is scheduled to come out on November 6, 2026, after being delayed from its original May 2026 release date.

The last Grand Theft Auto game, GTA 5, came out in 2013, and GTA 6’s repeated delays have triggered internet memes about all the unprecedented things that could happen or are happening before the game’s release.

Bets on various events occurring before GTA 6’s official release have garnered a cumulative trading volume of more than $12 million on Polymarket.

Bookmakers are betting that a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire (64%), a Chinese invasion of Taiwan (52%), and even Trump's exit from the White House (51%) are slightly more likely to happen before the game’s actual release.