Best College Football Bets & Week 14 Parlay: Jeremiah Smith Racks Up the Yards

Week 14 College Football Best Bets Overview

Best College Football Bets & Week 14 Parlay Today: Jeremiah Smith Racks Up the Yards

Andrew Caley offers his best college football best bets and parlay for Week 14, headlined by Jeremiah Smith.

Andrew Caley • Senior Betting Analyst

Nov 29, 2025 • 08:10 ET • 4 min read

It’s Rivalry Week, which means it’s the final opportunity for teams to polish up their resumes for the College Football Playoff committee, and the following are lined up as college football best bets for some of the biggest games.

These college football picks believe Jeremiah Smith will be the catalyst in ending the Wolverines' winning streak in "The Game" between Ohio State and Michigan. Elsewhere, Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt will try to make program history when they take on in-state rival Tennessee.

College Football Best Bets Week 14

Texas A&M -2.5

Texas A&M -2.5

Straight up. Have we not been watching the Texas Longhorns all season?

The spread is questioned immediately, with a strong preference for backing Texas A&M at less than a field goal.

Yes, this is a rivalry game, and the Texas Longhorns are at home. And yes, this is a talented roster except at the position where it matters the most.

Simply put, Arch Manning has just not been good enough. Even if he has put up some good numbers lately, those are viewed as inflated numbers against bad teams that have been padded by a lot of YAC yards. His reads are still too slow, and he has his uncle's penchant for throwing ducks without the timing or accuracy.

It’s stunning that a Texas team with this much offensive firepower and talent ranks 87th in the country in offensive success rate. But that is exactly where things stand heading into this matchup with Texas A&M.

On top of that, anyone who has been paying attention to Texas saw what was coming against Georgia. The Longhorns probably should have lost to Kentucky and Mississippi State before escaping vs. Vanderbilt. So, when they finally came across a good team again, the result wasn’t shocking.

That’s exactly what the Aggies are: a really good team. Marcel Reed has developed into a dynamic quarterback, while the Aggies' defense is one of the best in the country at pressuring opposing quarterbacks into bad decisions.

As a result, Texas A&M enters this game in the Top 10 in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play while leading the nation in sack rate.

And now it is clear the Aggies have some fight in them. They could have folded down 30-3 to South Carolina last week, but fought all the way back.

The handicap concludes that the clearly better team is available at less than a field goal.

Jeremiah Smith 80+ Receiving Yards

Jeremiah Smith 80+ Receiving Yards

With all the success Ohio State has had recently, it’s easy to forget that the Buckeyes have lost The Game against hated Michigan in four consecutive seasons, with the Wolverines winning three of those games as outright underdogs.

Ohio State is the favorite once again. This time around, it’s 10.5 points. That didn’t matter last year when the Buckeyes were 19.5-point chalk, and the Wolverines won a 13-10 slobber knocker of a game.

What creates doubt about Michigan’s chances to pull off the upset this time around is its ability to do what it did last year: relying on its defense to shut a team like the Buckeyes down.

Michigan enters this game with an 8-2 record, but necessarily hasn’t necessarily looked that good. Looking at the spreads, the Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last six games, with four of those being unable to cover by double digits.

The problem is the Wolverines' pass defense. Teams have been able to throw on them all season long. Even New Mexico threw for over 200 yards against them. As a result, Michigan ranks 84th in success rate on dropbacks. And now they have to deal with Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith, and the Buckeyes' passing game.

Ohio State leads the nation in EPA per dropback and success rate on dropbacks, and that’s without Smith lighting the world on fire.

When asked, many will say the best player in college football is Smith. But the Buckeyes’ wideout has a modest 902 yards and 10 touchdowns.

The expectation is that Smith and company are ready to peak. He has topped the century mark in two of the last three games and has had 97 or more in three of the last four. The bet is Smith to go for 80+ receiving yards at even money, something he’s done six times this season.

Vanderbilt Team Total Over 31.5

Vanderbilt Team Total Over 31.5

The magical run by the Vanderbilt Commodores comes to a head this weekend. Vandy enters this weekend ranked 14th in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. A win not only gives them their first 10-win season in program history, it also gives them a shot at the CFP.

But that won’t matter at all if the Commodores can’t earn a win in Knoxville against in-state rival Tennessee.

Vanderbilt is led by quarterback Diego Pavia. The exciting dual-threat signal-caller has done it all for the Commodores, throwing for 2,924 yards with 26 touchdowns to just six interceptions while adding 661 yards and eight scores on the ground.

Combine Pavia with some elite weapons like Sedrick Alexander and Eli Stowers, and you have one of the best offenses in the country. Vandy enters this game ranked second in EPA per play and third in offensive success rate. They’ve scored 31 or more points in their seven SEC matchups, including 45 in each of the last two.

The expectation is that the Commodores don’t slow down in this matchup against the Volunteers.

Even though it was months ago, it feels like the Tennessee Volunteers’ season got derailed when it collapsed in an early-season matchup against Georgia. The Volunteers are 7-3 this season, with the most impressive win coming against Kentucky or Mississippi State. They are also 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.

The Vols offense will do its thing, but Josh Heupel's defense is still an issue.

Tennessee has surrendered at least 31 points in six of its seven SEC games this season, and it has been gashed by the run. The Vols rank 121st in the country in defensive success rate vs. the rush. That has resulted in them giving up lots of long scoring drives. They rank 77th in quality drive rate and 100th in points per quality drive.

Pavia and the Commodores running backs are projected to roll on the ground here, which will, in turn, open things up through the air. Vanderbilt is expected to hit enough explosive plays to cash the Over on its team total.

Triple Option Parlay for Week 14

Triple Option Parlay for Week 14

Texas A&M -2.5

Jeremiah Smith 80+ Receiving Yards

Vanderbilt Team Total Over 31.5

Combined, these three legs form a parlay priced at +588 at the time of writing.