The Primer: Week 16 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Breakdown

Fantasy Football Primer Overview

The Primer for Week 16 focuses on helping fantasy managers navigate the playoffs, betting props, DFS lineups, and avoiding last-place finishes and league punishments. Dialing in for the fantasy playoffs can be hard enough when dealing with injuries to rosters and the ever-changing NFL landscape, but upcoming holiday festivities and preparation add another layer to the equation.

The Primer is designed to make it easier all season to focus on lineup decisions and dominate the competition. This edition covers another week of football and matchups to discuss for Week 16.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings

Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start and Strong Starts

These are no-brainer must starts and strong starts that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Over the last two weeks, Rashid Shaheed has finished as the WR14 and WR28 in weekly scoring with an 18.2% target share, 70.5 receiving yards per game, 2.71 yards per route run, and a 23.8% first-read share, which is second on the team. During these two weeks, Shaheed has had one red zone target and three deep targets. Shaheed is a surprisingly strong flex this week against a secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Over the last two weeks, Colby Parkinson has been the TE11 and TE5 in weekly scoring, and he could easily stack another TE1 finish this week. Since Week 14, Parkinson has had a 63.9% route share, a 17.4% target share, 53.5 receiving yards per game, 2.33 yards per route run, and a 16.4% first-read share. In those two games, he has seen seven red zone targets and two deep targets with three touchdowns. Seattle has been a good matchup for tight ends this season, giving up the ninth-most yards per target and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Parkinson is a strong TE1 this week, and Matthew Stafford is expected to lean on him as the second option in the passing attack behind Puka Nacua with Davante Adams out.

Flex and Deep Plays to Consider

Sam Darnold is the QB22 in fantasy points per game, with QB1 weekly finishes in only three of his last seven games, including a QB25 outing in his last meeting with the Rams. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Darnold ranks first in yards per attempt, seventh in passing yards per game, second in highly accurate throw rate, 22nd in catchable target rate, and 13th in fantasy points per dropback. The Rams are a below-average matchup for Darnold. Since Week 11, the Rams have ranked 15th in yards per attempt and allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game, but they have also held quarterbacks to the second-lowest completion percentage over expected, the seventh-lowest success rate per dropback, and have forced the third-most interceptions. Darnold should be viewed as a decent QB2 this week.

Concerning Starts and Players to Fade

Matthew Stafford is the QB4 in fantasy points per game with QB1 weekly finishes in eight of his last 11 games. The last time that he played Seattle, he was the QB16 for the week. Stafford will have an uphill climb this week to be a top-12 quarterback, but it is possible. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Stafford ranks seventh in yards per attempt, 13th in catchable target rate, second in hero throw rate, and fifth in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 11, Seattle’s pass defense has remained strong, giving up the lowest passing yards per game, the fewest yards per attempt, the third-lowest completion percentage over expected, and the second-lowest success rate per dropback. Stafford could be a QB1 this week, but losing Davante Adams does not help his outlook.

The Rams have been splitting up the backfield work as the coaching staff wants to keep Kyren Williams fresh for the playoffs. Last week, Williams played 53.6% of the snaps with a 36.6% route share and 2.6% target share. He finished with 16 touches, 88 total yards, and three red zone rushing attempts. Williams is expected to keep a slim margin in usage and playing time over Blake Corum. This week, Williams will have a tough road, but considering the context of the offense he is in, he should be able to overcome the matchup with volume and touchdown equity. Since Week 11, Seattle has allowed the 13th-lowest explosive run rate, the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest rushing success rate, and the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate.

Blake Corum has eaten into Kyren Williams’ workload with the Rams becoming a split backfield. The Rams are doing this to keep Williams fresh for the rest of the season and the playoffs. Corum has had little to no passing game usage, with only one game this season with more than two targets. His avenue to scoring fantasy points is entirely dependent upon his early downs production in the rushing department. Last week, he played 46.4% of the snaps with a 26.8% route share as he finished with 11 carries for 71 rushing yards. This is not the matchup to plug in a touchdown-driven flex play. Since Week 11, Seattle has allowed the 13th-lowest explosive run rate, the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest rushing success rate, and the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate.

The Seattle backfield has been a constant back and forth all season. Once it appears Kenneth Walker is about to take over, Zach Charbonnet or another backup running back has emerged to change the workload split. Since Week 11, Walker has averaged 14 touches and 66.6 total yards with a 51.8% snap rate, a 36.6% route share, and an 8% target share. He has had eight red zone rushing attempts versus Charbonnet’s 12. Among 43 qualifying backs, Walker ranks fourth in explosive run rate and third in missed tackle rate. Walker has a difficult matchup this week. Since Week 11, the Rams have allowed the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, the sixth-lowest rushing success rate, and the eighth-lowest yards before contact per attempt.

Since Week 11, Charbonnet has averaged ten touches and 46.2 total yards, with the backfield lead in red zone rushing attempts with 12. He has played 43% of the snaps with a 26.3% route share and 3.7% target share. He has been a touchdown-dependent flex. Among 43 qualifying backs, he ranks 18th in missed tackle rate and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 11, the Rams have allowed the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, the sixth-lowest rushing success rate, and the eighth-lowest yards before contact per attempt.

Since Week 14, Cooper Kupp has seen his role in the Seattle passing offense take a hit as Rashid Shaheed is finally being integrated. Since Week 14, Kupp has had a 15.2% target share with 40.5 receiving yards per game, 1.42 yards per route run, and a 21.4% first-read share. Kupp has had four red zone targets and one deep target during these two games, so his touchdown equity in the offense is still strong. This is not the matchup to consider flexing Kupp. Since Week 10, the Rams have allowed the second-fewest PPR points per target and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

AJ Barner is the TE23 in fantasy points per game with a 64.8% route share, a 13.5% target share, 29.5 receiving yards per game, 1.51 yards per route run, and an 11.2% first-read share. Barner is second on the team with ten red zone targets while also drawing two deep targets. Barner is not on the streaming radar this week. Since Week 11, the Rams have limited tight ends to the second-fewest yards per target and the third-fewest fantasy points per game.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders

Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start and Strong Starts

These are no-brainer must starts and strong starts that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

DeVonta Smith is the WR29 in fantasy points per game with a 24% target share, a 34.9% air-yard share, 2.07 yards per route run, and a 30% first-read share. Smith is third on the team with eight red zone targets and tied with A.J. Brown for the team lead in deep targets. Smith has had a slump with only one game with double-digit PPR points since Week 11. During that span, he has had only two red zone targets and exceeded 55 receiving yards only once. This week’s matchup offers a bounce-back opportunity. Since Week 10, Washington has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target and the third-highest rating when targeted to perimeter wide receivers.

Dallas Goedert is the TE7 in fantasy points per game while garnering a 19% target share with 42.4 receiving yards per game, 1.54 yards per route run, and a 21.6% first-read share. Goedert has excelled in each of the last two games as the TE5 and TE3 in weekly scoring. He is tied for the team lead in red zone targets with 11 while also contributing six deep targets. Goedert could be a top-five tight end again this week. Since Week 10, Washington has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most yards per target to tight ends.

Flex and Deep Plays to Consider

Since his Week 13 return, Terry McLaurin has had two top-20 weekly finishes (WR8, WR19) while drawing a 23.7% target share with 68.7 receiving yards per game, 2.71 yards per route run, and a 28.8% first-read share. In those three games, McLaurin has had five red zone targets and four deep targets. The usage has been strong, but he will have a tough test this week that will lower his ceiling and floor. Since Week 10, Philadelphia has ranked 16th in receiving yards per game against perimeter wide receivers while surrendering the fifth-fewest PPR points per target to the position.

Concerning Starts and Players to Fade

Marcus Mariota will be Washington’s starter for the rest of the season. He has three QB1 outings this season while averaging 6.4 rushing attempts and 36.7 rushing yards as the team’s starter. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 11th in yards per attempt, 30th in catchable target rate, 27th in highly accurate throw rate, and eighth in hero throw rate. Mariota is best viewed as a decent QB2 this week with a tough matchup. Since Week 11, Philadelphia has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the ninth-fewest passing yards per game, and the sixth-lowest completion percentage over expected.

After missing last week’s game, Chris Rodriguez opened this week with a full practice due to a groin issue. His practice reports later in the week will determine his outlook.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt is coming off a strong game, but his run as the team’s starter might be short-lived. After missing last week’s game, Chris Rodriguez opened this week with a full practice. Rodriguez’s practice reports will shape Croskey-Merritt’s outlook.

Deebo Samuel is the WR24 in fantasy points per game, seeing seven deep targets and 12 red zone targets this season. Samuel has a 23.3% target share with 46.5 receiving yards per game, 1.72 yards per route run, and a 28.1% first-read share. Touchdowns have helped Samuel this season when he has not had a 100-yard receiving day in 2025 and has surpassed 65 receiving yards in a game once since Week 5. Samuel will likely need a touchdown to pay off again this week in fantasy. Philadelphia has shut down slot receivers since Week 10, allowing the fewest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game to the position.

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

Packers Players & Weekly Rankings

Bears Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start and Strong Starts

These are no-brainer must starts and strong starts that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Josh Jacobs opened the week with a missed practice due to a knee issue. If he is active, he is expected to be in fantasy lineups.

Since Week 11, D’Andre Swift has averaged 16.8 touches and 87 total yards with a 53.3% snap rate, a 37.8% route share, and a 4.8% target share. Since Week 11, he has lost the goal-line battle to Kyle Monangai with 11 red-zone rushing attempts versus Monangai’s 16. Swift has still been the lead back and the preferred passing-down back. Among 43 qualifying backs, Swift ranks ninth in explosive run rate and 14th in missed tackle rate. He will have a tough matchup this week, but with injuries to the receiver room, the expectation is that the coaching staff will lean on the ground game. Since Week 11, Green Bay has allowed the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the 13th-lowest rushing success rate, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Since Week 11, Kyle Monangai has taken over as the team’s goal-line back with 16 red-zone rushing attempts while averaging 14.6 touches and 61 total yards with a 44.2% snap rate, a 26.5% route share, and a 3% target share. Among 43 qualifying backs, Monangai ranks 21st in explosive run rate and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. The coaching staff is expected to lean on the ground game with all of the injuries to the aerial attack this week. Since Week 11, Green Bay has allowed the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the 13th-lowest rushing success rate, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Last week, Jayden Reed’s route share increased to 67.4%. He should at least see this type of workload this week, and it could continue to increase. Since Week 14, Reed has had a 21% target per route run rate with 43 receiving yards per game, 1.79 yards per route run, and a 19.4% first-read share. In those two games, Reed has one red zone target and zero deep targets. Reed is a strong flex this week who could produce WR2/3 numbers. Since Week 10, Chicago has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the ninth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Flex and Deep Plays to Consider

Jordan Love is the QB16 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 weekly finishes in his last five games (QB8, QB2, QB11). Overall, among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Love is eighth in yards per attempt, 12th in passing yards per game, 18th in catchable throw rate, and seventh in hero throw rate. Love could be a QB1 again this week, but he is best viewed as a high-floor QB2 against an improved Chicago pass defense. Since Week 11, Chicago has allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards per game, the sixth-fewest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest success rate per dropback, and the sixth-lowest passer rating.

Caleb Williams has been a QB2 in weekly scoring in four of his last five games, including a QB16 performance against Green Bay. The last time he faced the Packers, he had a 54.3% completion rate with 186 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. This week, Williams could be without Rome Odunze and Luther Burden, which would not help his outlook. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Williams ranks 17th in passing yards per game, 25th in yards per attempt, 34th in highly accurate throw rate, and 39th in catchable target rate. Williams should have more time in the pocket this week, but this pass defense is not a pushover. Since Week 11, the defense has allowed the 11th-fewest passing yards per game while ranking 17th in completion percentage over expected and 15th in success rate per dropback. Williams should be viewed as a decent QB2.

Concerning Starts and Players to Fade

Christian Watson is dealing with a chest and shoulder injury. He opened this week with a limited practice session. His status for Week 16 will depend on further practice participation.

Romeo Doubs’ role in the offense could be dramatically altered if Christian Watson is not able to play this week. Doubs’ outlook for Week 16 will be updated once there is more clarity on Watson’s status.

Luther Burden opened this week with a missed practice due to an ankle issue. He could easily miss this week, and his status will be updated later in the week.

Rome Odunze opened this week with a missed practice due to a foot issue and is dealing with a stress fracture. It is unlikely that he will play this week or for the rest of the regular season.

DJ Moore’s outlook for Week 16 will change significantly if Luther Burden and Rome Odunze miss this week’s game. The passing game could flow through Moore and Colston Loveland if Burden and Odunze are out.

Colston Loveland’s outlook for Week 16 will also change significantly if Luther Burden and Rome Odunze miss this week’s game. The passing game could flow through Moore and Loveland if Burden and Odunze are out.

Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Browns Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start and Strong Starts

These are no-brainer must starts and strong starts that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Quinshon Judkins is the RB23 in fantasy points per game, ranking 13th in snap share, 16th in weighted opportunities, and 24th in red zone touches. Judkins has averaged 18.7 touches and 72.8 total yards. Among 43 qualifying backs, Judkins ranks 32nd in explosive run rate and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt. He should post a solid RB2 stat line again this week. Since Week 11, Buffalo has allowed the tenth-most rushing yards per game, the 12th-highest explosive run rate, the most yards before contact per attempt, and the seventh-highest rushing success rate.

Flex and Deep Plays to Consider

Khalil Shakir is the WR41 in fantasy points per game with top-36 weekly finishes in three of his last four games (WR13, WR32, WR33). Shakir has a 19.4% target share with 46.4 receiving yards per game, 1.90 yards per route run, and a 22.7% first-read share. Shakir has 11 red zone targets and six deep targets this season. Shakir is a low-ceiling flex play again this week with a tough matchup. Since Week 10, Cleveland has allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target and the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Concerning Starts and Players to Fade

After a strong performance against the Titans in Week 14, Shedeur Sanders came back to earth last week with a 51.4% completion rate, 177 passing yards, zero passing touchdowns, and three interceptions, finishing as the QB31 for the week. Since Week 12, among 33 qualifying passers, Sanders has ranked 13th in yards per attempt, 15th in hero throw rate, 24th in highly accurate throw rate, and 30th in catchable target rate. This week, he is a QB2 who is best left on the bench. Since Week 11, Buffalo has allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game, the eighth-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest completion percentage over expected, and has ranked 16th in success rate per dropback. Sanders should at least have time in the pocket this week, as Buffalo has had the second-lowest pressure rate since Week 11.

Since Week 12, Jerry Jeudy has finished above WR59 in weekly scoring only once, and that was against Tennessee. During those four games, Jeudy has seen a 13% target share with 40.8 receiving yards per game, 1.34 yards per route run, and a 16.7% first-read share. During that span, he has had zero red zone targets and four deep targets. Jeudy should remain on the bench this week. Since Week 10, Buffalo has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Since Week 12, with Shedeur Sanders under center, Harold Fannin Jr. has been the TE5 in fantasy points per game with a 28.5% target share, 61.3 receiving yards per game, 2.08 yards per route run, and a 31.8% first-read share. In those four games, Fannin has had three red zone targets and two deep targets, scoring two touchdowns. Fannin could see enough volume to carry him across the TE1 line for this week, but there is concern about the matchup. Buffalo’s pass defense has been elite against tight ends for the last few seasons. This year, Buffalo has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards and the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Dalton Kincaid has struggled to stay healthy this season. He opened this week with a missed practice due to a knee issue, and his knees and hamstrings have been a problem all season. His outlook for Week 16 is uncertain, and it would not be surprising if he misses the game.