The Primer: Week 13 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Breakdown

Week 13 Fantasy Football Primer Overview

Shake off the turkey coma. Forget about the Christmas shopping sales. Block the verbal spat with that drunk in-law at Thanksgiving from your mind. It’s time to lock in. The fantasy football playoffs are almost here. Playoff spots are won and lost in the next two weeks. First round byes can be clinched.

This is the time of the year when everyone is busy, tired, and weary, but the prize cannot be lost from sight.

This week is a pivotal step in the quest for a fantasy football championship. Welcome to the rest of the Week 13 Primer.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets

ATL -2.5, O/U 39.5

Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings

Jets Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer must starts.

• Bijan Robinson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

In Tyrod Taylor’s two starts this season, he has finished as the QB8 and QB17 in weekly scoring while averaging 6.5 rushing attempts and 38.5 rushing yards. Among 45 qualifying passers, he ranks 34th in yards per attempt, second in highly accurate throw rate, and 18th in catchable target rate. Taylor could put up QB1 numbers this week against a burnable Falcons pass defense. Since Week 8, Atlanta has allowed the most passing yards per game, the third-highest yards per attempt, the third-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the third-highest CPOE.

Breece Hall is the RB18 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.8 touches and 97 total yards per game. Among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks second in explosive run rate and 15th in missed tackle rate. The Jets would be wise to feed Hall this week against a porous Falcons run defense. Since Week 8, Atlanta has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-most yards before contact per attempt, the sixth-highest success rate to zone runs, and had the seventh-lowest stuff rate.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

In his two starts this season, Kirk Cousins has finished as the QB23 and QB14 in weekly scoring. He has been a very accurate passer in his limited playing time. Among 45 qualifying passers, he ranks 38th in yards per attempt but fifth in highly accurate throw rate, third in catchable target rate, and 19th in hero throw rate. He should return decent QB2 production again this week. Since Week 8, the Jets have allowed the 12th-highest passer rating and tenth-highest EPA per dropback while ranking 18th in success rate per dropback. Cousins should have time in the pocket this week against a pass rush that, since Week 8, has had the 13th-lowest pressure rate.

Tyler Allgeier is the RB45 in fantasy points per game with 8.9 touches and 32.3 total yards per game. Allgeier has three top 24 running weekly finishes this season. He is 12th among running backs with seven touchdowns while also ranking 21st in red zone touches. Among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks 19th in explosive run rate and 30th in missed tackle rate. Allgeier is a solid touchdown-dependent flex this week. Since Week 8, the Jets have allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the 12th-most rushing yards per game, and the third-highest missed tackle rate.

Drake London will be out again this week. Darnell Mooney will operate as the team’s de facto WR1 again. Last week, Mooney had a 13% target share, 74 receiving yards, 3.22 yards per route run, and a 23.1% first-read share. He did not have any red zone targets but did see one deep target. With the big play and a touchdown, he was the WR16 for the week. Mooney is a solid flex play again this week. Since Week 10, New York has ranked 16th in PPR points per target and 15th in receiving yards per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers.

Since Week 11, Adonai Mitchell has had a 23.6% target share, a 35.5% first-read share, and a 62.5% air-yard share, but he has only 26 receiving yards per game, 1.13 yards per route run, and three drops to show for it. In the last two games, Mitchell has had two red zone targets and five deep targets. Eventually, Mitchell is going to catch his targets, and the regression pendulum is going to swing back the other way for him, and it could be this week. Since Week 8, Atlanta has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and the tenth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Over the last two games, John Metchie has been the WR18 and WR11 in weekly scoring. He has had an 18.2% target share with 55 receiving yards per game, 2.08 yards per route run, and a 19.4% first-read share. He has run hot with a touchdown in each game, but his high leverage usage has not been great, with only one red zone target and zero deep targets. Metchie is in a good spot to continue the hot streak this week. Since Week 8, Atlanta has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and the tenth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Mason Taylor is the TE29 in fantasy points per game with a 16.8% target share, 1.05 yards per route run, 27 receiving yards per game, and an 18.7% first-read share. Taylor has only one score this season but has drawn eight red zone targets. Taylor is not on the streaming radar this week. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Kyle Pitts has seen his fantasy stock fall over the last few weeks. His last TE1 finish in weekly scoring occurred back in Week 8. Since that point, he has not surpassed eight PPR points in any game. Pitts is the TE19 in fantasy points per game with a 19.1% target share, 41.7 receiving yards per game, 1.37 yards per route run, and an 18.8% first-read share. He has only five red zone targets and five deep targets this season and has not drawn a red zone target since Week 9. Pitts should be left on the bench this week. The Jets have allowed the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game and the sixth-lowest yards per reception to tight ends.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Carolina Panthers

LAR -10.5, O/U 45

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings

Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer must starts.

• Matthew Stafford
• Kyren Williams
• Puka Nacua
• Davante Adams

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Tetairoa McMillan is the WR19 in fantasy points per game with a 24.5% target share, a 44% air-yard share, 65.3 receiving yards per game, 2.02 yards per route run, and a 29.4% first-read share. McMillan leads the team with 14 red zone targets and 14 deep targets. He has been outstanding this year and could be producing even better numbers if his quarterback were playing better. McMillan will have another uphill battle in Week 13 against a tough opponent. Since Week 8, the Rams have ranked 17th in receiving yards per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers but have also allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target to the position.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Just when it seemed safe to consider Bryce Young again in fantasy, his performance dipped. Last week, Young finished as the QB20 with only 169 yards passing, 5.8 yards per attempt, and 15 rushing yards on four attempts. He has struggled for most of the season. The Rams have been one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Since Week 8, they have allowed the seventh-fewest yards per attempt, the third-lowest passer rating, and the ninth-lowest CPOE. Young is expected to struggle again this week.

Since Week 9, Rico Dowdle has been the RB9 in fantasy points per game with a 75.9% snap share, 20.5 touches per game, and 94.5 total yards per game. Among 54 qualifying backs, Dowdle ranks 12th in explosive run rate, 14th in missed tackle rate, and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. Dowdle will have a long day on the ground, but his passing game role and volume should help to keep him afloat this week. Over the last two games, he has averaged 4.5 receptions and 45.5 receiving yards per game. Since Week 8, the Rams have allowed the tenth-fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, and the fifth-fewest yards before contact per attempt.

With Bryce Young reverting to below-average quarterback play last week, the Carolina passing offense has become a sinkhole again outside of Tetairoa McMillan. In favorable matchups last week, Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker disappointed because of the level of quarterback play. Neither should be on the fantasy radar against a pass defense that has also allowed the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game and the seventh-fewest yards per reception to wide receivers.

New Orleans Saints vs. Miami Dolphins

MIA -5.5, O/U 42

Saints Players & Weekly Rankings

Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer must starts.

• De’Von Achane
• Jaylen Waddle
• Chris Olave

Chris Olave has dealt with back spasms this week. He had limited practice sessions Wednesday and Friday and has been listed as questionable, but expectations are that he will play.

Strong Starts

Juwan Johnson has finished as a TE1 in weekly scoring in every game that Tyler Shough has started this season (TE12, TE3, TE9). In those three games, Johnson has had a 15.3% target share with 56.3 receiving yards per game, 2.09 yards per route run, and a 14.8% first-read share. In that same span, he has two red zone targets and a deep target. Johnson is a strong TE1 again this week. Miami has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game, the fifth-most fantasy points per game, and the sixth-highest yards per reception to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Tua Tagovailoa has been a basement-level QB2 for most of the season as the QB28 in fantasy points per game. He has not had a QB1 weekly outing since Week 6. Among 45 qualifying passers, he ranks 26th in yards per attempt, 31st in passing yards per game, tenth in highly accurate throw rate, and 27th in fantasy points per dropback. Tagovailoa faces a burnable Saints pass defense this week that could allow him to return to the QB1 ranks, even if only for one week. Since Week 8, they have allowed the eighth-highest passer rating, the seventh-highest CPOE, and the sixth-highest success rate per dropback. Tagovailoa has been incredibly pressure-sensitive this season, but the Saints have had the sixth-lowest pressure rate in that span.

Devin Neal will operate as the Saints workhorse back this week. Last week, with Alvin Kamara sustaining an injury, Neal had a 73.8% snap rate with 12 touches and 61 total yards. His passing game usage was noteworthy with seven targets and a 16.2% target share. Neal has yet to register an explosive run or missed tackle this season, but he has had only 17 carries, so the sample size is small. Taysom Hill handled all of the red zone carries for the Saints offense last week, so Neal has concerns entering this week regarding his touchdown equity. Miami’s improving run defense is also a worry. Since Week 8, Miami has allowed the third-lowest missed tackle rate, the 13th-fewest yards before contact per attempt, and the fourth-lowest rushing success rate. Neal is a volume play, and if he does score this week, he is likely a low-end RB2, with better prospects in PPR formats.

Darren Waller will be back this week. He has two TE1 weekly finishes this season (TE4, TE6) and four red zone targets in his four games played. Waller has a 17% target per route run rate, 1.70 yards per route run, and an 11.8% first-read share this season. The Saints have been a middling team at defending tight ends, ranking 15th in receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game allowed to the position. Waller is a streaming option this week.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Tyler Shough has been the QB28 in fantasy points per game since assuming the starting job. Among 45 qualifying passers, he has ranked 29th in yards per attempt, 34th in passing yards per game, 25th in catchable target rate, and 34th in highly accurate throw rate. The Dolphins look like a plus matchup on paper at first glance, but it is unlikely that Shough can take advantage of it. Since Week 8, the Dolphins have allowed the fifth-highest success rate per dropback, the sixth-highest passer rating, and the 12th-highest CPOE. The Miami pass rush will likely be Shough’s undoing this week. Since Week 8, Miami has had the sixth-best pressure rate, and overall this season, they have the third-highest blitz rate. Against pressure, Shough has struggled with the sixth-lowest yards per attempt and adjusted completion rate. Since Week 8, the Saints offensive line has also allowed the eighth-highest pressure rate over expectation.

Since Week 5, Malik Washington has had a 14.9% target share with 26.7 receiving yards per game, 1.33 yards per route run, and a 16% first-read share. That is not the role that was hoped for once Tyreek Hill was lost to injury. During those seven games, he has had only one top-36 weekly finish (WR25) despite seeing seven red zone targets and two deep targets. Washington is a deep league flex only. Since Week 8, New Orleans has allowed the 13th-fewest PPR points per target while ranking 16th in passer rating when teams have targeted the slot.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns

SF -4.5, O/U 36

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Browns Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer must starts.

• Christian McCaffrey
• George Kittle

Strong Starts

Since Week 8, Jauan Jennings has been the WR26 in fantasy points per game with a 21.6% target share, 50.4 receiving yards per game, 1.92 yards per route run, and a 30.8% first-read share. In those five games, Jennings has six red zone targets and six deep targets. Jennings is a strong flex play again this week. Since Week 8, Cleveland has allowed the 13th-most PPR points per target and ranked 19th in receiving yards per game against perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Last week, Shedeur Sanders finished as the QB18 in fantasy. It was an up-and-down performance, which is not surprising considering it was his first start and the limited practice time with the starters. Sanders finished with 10.4 yards per attempt and a 5% hero throw rate, but he also had only a 50% highly accurate throw rate, a 55% catchable target rate, and 30% of his passes were deemed off-target. He will need to raise his level of play on a dropback-to-dropback basis, but for his first start, there were plenty of encouraging moments. Sanders could have another solid QB2 outing this week and build upon last game. Since Week 8, the 49ers have had the third-lowest pressure rate while giving up the most passing yards per game, the sixth-highest CPOE, and the fifth-highest success rate per dropback.

Jerry Jeudy has been a disappointment this season. He is the WR64 in fantasy points per game with only three top-36 weekly finishes. Jeudy has a 19.5% target share with a 38.1% air-yard share and 26.5% first-read share, but he has turned that volume into only 35.9 receiving yards per game and 1.09 yards per route run. In his 11 games played, he has eight red zone targets (one touchdown) and 13 deep targets. The 49ers have been a middle-of-the-road team against perimeter wide receivers since Week 8, ranking 15th in receiving yards per game and 14th in PPR points per target allowed. Jeudy is flex viable, but many managers will likely play other options over him again this week.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

In his four starts this season, Brock Purdy has one QB1 weekly finish (QB6). He has been adding a small bit of rushing weekly, with at least 13 rushing yards in three of four games. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, Purdy ranks 11th in yards per attempt, 13th in catchable target rate, and 17th in fantasy points per dropback. There has also been a downside to his aggressive style of play. Among that same set of passers, he is 12th in interceptions (tied) and has the fourth-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. The Browns pass defense could give him serious issues this week. Since Week 8, they have allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards per game, the tenth-lowest success rate per dropback, the second-lowest EPA per dropback, and have had the highest pressure rate in the NFL. It is safer to consider Purdy more of a QB2 this week than a borderline top 12 option.

Quinshon Judkins is the RB20 in fantasy points per game, ranking 17th in opportunity share, 19th in weighted opportunities, and 17th in red zone touches. Judkins has averaged 18.7 touches and 73.7 total yards. Among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks 28th in missed tackle rate and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. He is a volume-driven play this week that needs a score to pay off for fantasy. Since Week 8, the 49ers run defense has allowed the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game, the 13th-lowest explosive run rate, and the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate.

It has been tough for Ricky Pearsall since returning to the field. In the last two weeks, he has had only a 10.3% target share, three receiving yards per game, and a 9.7% first-read share. He has been the field stretcher for the team, with half of his targets coming downfield with a 12.5 aDOT. This is not the matchup to consider flexing Pearsall, considering what has been seen since his return. Cleveland has allowed the tenth-lowest deep completion rate, the 11th-fewest deep passing yards per game, and the 12th-lowest passer rating to downfield passing.

Over the last two weeks, David Njoku and Harold Fannin Jr. have had fluctuating route shares. Njoku has had a 44.4% route share with only a 4.3% target share. Fannin, during the same span, has had a 23.9% target share, but that has only amounted to 5.5 targets per game, and his route share has stood at 55.6%. This passing offense is not strong enough to support part-time players right now. Both should be sat and can be considered drop candidates in redraft depending upon tight end options.