The ROTY Case: Why Stephon Castle Should Win the Rookie of the Year

Is the Rookie Race Coming to an End?

Jared McCain started out as the massive favorite to win it all by the end of the season given how his massive performances have really given hope to a lowly campaign by the Philadelphia 76ers. Unfortunately, his season ended early when he suffered a tough injury and had to come up with surgery.

That said, the Rookie Race suddenly became wide open – and there were plenty of contenders that have come and gone in the discussion so far. There are the likes of Zaccharie Risacher – the first overall pick in Atlanta who has been really impressive with his games so far. The dynamic rookie duo of Jaylen Wells and Zach Edey in Memphis has also been impressive so far, which puts a lot of discussion for the ROTY.

Then there’s Yves Missi, who momentarily became a favorite pick to win in January before his game ultimately dissipated with Zion Williamson’s return to the lineup hampering his plays and minutes in the rotation.

But none of these rookies has played at a higher level than Stephon Castle, who now takes over bigger minutes with the San Antonio Spurs and has been really efficient in his games so far with Victor Wembanyama sitting out the rest of the season.

Latest Odds to Win the Rookie of the Year

Based on the latest odds, Miami Heat’s Kel’El Ware is surprisingly at the top of the list. The rookie center isn’t really making much impact, and his odds are expected to plummet soon as he continues to miss games with injury. Still, there’s Stephon Castle, who is on the top of the NBA’s ROTY Race so far.

Risacher also comes alive in the list, joining Castle and Wells as the only three consistent players in the top five so far. Alexandre Sarr, on the other hand, has been in an on-off run with the Washington Wizards but is still nevertheless relevant in the ROTY race.

With less than five weeks to go, the battle for the Rookie of the Year supremacy is definitely going to demand fans’ attention now more than ever. At this point, we can just lock the race up for both Castle and Wells, who have been the most consistent performers of the season so far.

Castle vs Wells: By the Numbers

So how do we gauge the fact that Stephon Castle should be the favorite to win it all over Jaylen Wells? Well, there are a few stats to call upon this one, which could make for a strong argument by the end of the day. So let’s dive into the conversation and see which rookie has a good chance to win the ROTY.

Team Record

Winning comes as a huge factor for gauging the impact of rookies so far, but it cannot be denied that the Memphis Grizzlies are enjoying a promising season this time, putting Wells at an advantage with his success in the squad.

However, it is worth noting that the Spurs are coming off the worst record in the NBA last season, and it is now missing Victor Wembanyama – who has the biggest win share in the team at this point. So it would be unfair to gauge team records for the ROTY considering that Wells is playing with a Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr.

Wells has been a standout in his games with Memphis, but it cannot be denied that he is not even playing as one of the main scoring options for the team, which would make it a big difference for Stephon Castle as he is at least the second or third scoring option for the squad.

2024-25 Statistics

So let’s dive into the stats. Castle wins almost every single category save for a 0.1 difference in rebounding and nearly 3% difference in field goal percentage. This data tells us that Stephon Castle is definitely performing better than Wells at all angles. On top of that, advanced stats in the NBA also determine that Castle has a bigger Player Impact Estimate (PIE) than Wells at 8.1 to the latter’s 7.0.

To make it clear, Wells is not running the offense for the Grizzlies more often than Castle does for the Spurs, which would mean that the latter has better on-court impact than his counterpart.

For starters in four games this season, Castle has averaged 22.8 points, 5.0 assists, and 4.0 rebounds Jaylen Wells in this season alone. On the other hand, Jaylen Wells has averaged 11.8 points, 1.8 rebounds, and 1.5 assists in 4 games versus Stephon Castle in his career. Although, the Grizzlies went on to win the first three, Castle and the Spurs won the latest one – with Wemby out of the lineup as well.

Remember how Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren are often pitted against each other in their games for the Rookie of the Year? Well, the same can be said for this case.

Is Stephon Castle the Runaway Winner of the ROTY?

At this point, it cannot be denied that Stephon Castle has a massive case against Jaylen Wells and even the rest of the 2025 rookies with the way he has stepped up and played big-time against many teams. Considering that he’s stepped up without Wembanyama on the floor for the Spurs, it seems that he is definitely deserving to be hailed the ROTY now more than ever.

While Jaylen Wells or any other contender might be presenting some arguable cases, it is safe to say that Castle has a strong case of his own – enough to actually close out the talks surrounding the award. For now, all he has to do is to perform at a high level all the way to the season finish – and unless Wells or any rookie comes up with a dominant stretch, it is already a lock for Castle now more than ever.

If you have concerns about your betting plans or need a new strategy, you can always see what our Gamble AI thinks. The more well-thought your wagers are, the bigger your chances of winning in each of your wagers!

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