Choke Jobs: The Art of Blowing Leads in NBA Games

How Does Blowing Leads Happen?

Well, this article wouldn’t have come up in the first place had it not been for the Oklahoma City Thunder – the second-best team in the league this season – who coughed up a 25-point lead and lost in overtime to the Minnesota Timberwolves. It was not expected from OKC – a team known well to play efficient basketball and chase massive deficits themselves.

Well, OKC did give up a 19-point lead in their prior meeting – just the day before the said collapse, but they did manage to scrape up a win in that clash on the road. And so, the Thunder were really unfortunate enough to blow a massive 25-point lead in front of their home fans, in a game that they were already poised to win by 98% heading into the fourth quarter.

Still, there are factors to consider – OKC lost Isaiah Hartenstein to an injury in the third quarter and played the rest of the game without a center, and it was the second night of a back-to-back. However, there are no excuses on this one as OKC dropped its 11th loss of the season.

But that’s just recency bias. There are even bigger leads blown in the NBA, and it cannot be denied that the NBA’s fast-paced action has really offered a bigger shift and a higher competitive level of play that even the unexpected or even impossible – happens.

Are Leads Truly Unsafe?

Leads are determined to be a point advantage by a team by at least 10 points or more. It also accounts for teams leading the game to begin the fourth quarter. In the fast-paced world of the NBA, one of the most frustrating experiences for both players and fans alike is witnessing a team blow a lead, especially when it seems like the game was already in the bag.

Whether it’s a 20-point advantage with just a quarter left, or a more modest lead evaporating in the final minutes, blown leads have become a common—and often painful—part of the game.

Most Blown Leads in the 2024-25 NBA Season

Based on the data, the Washington Wizards – who have the worst record in the season so far, have blown a whopping total of 38 leads, which includes eight games where they led by more than 10 points and five games where they entered the fourth quarter with a lead. Suffice it to say, this follows the pattern of the overall league standings so far, and it cannot be denied that blowing leads does indeed correlate to poor records in the league.

The teams with the fewer blown leads? We have a tied record for the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Oklahoma City Thunder with both 10 blown leads. Teams with the most blown 4th quarter lead? Unfortunately, the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have lost 15 games when having the lead in the fourth.

Blowing leads in the NBA is an unfortunate reality that even the best teams face. The game is fast, unpredictable, and filled with plenty of variables—especially in a league where teams can score in bursts and momentum swings like a pendulum.

Most Blown 4th Quarter Leads in the Last 10 Seasons

Based on the data, the Dallas Mavericks have had the most seasons where they have choked the biggest leads over the years, being the first in 2022-23 (21), 2019-20 (19), and in 2017-18 (23), with the latter being also the worst record of all blown fourth-quarter leads in the NBA’s last 10 seasons, including this year.

It is worth noting that these are all historically worse teams over the years, which says a lot about how blowing leads is really quite the dilemma among NBA teams. In fact – no NBA team has ever finished a single season without blowing a single lead – whether it is a double-digit deficit or a fourth quarter lead.

What Causes Blown Leads in the NBA?

Let’s be honest, defensive breakdowns have been really quite hard on almost every team that has tried to find ways to win, and it cannot be denied that there are a lot of people who are either laughing hard or just really frustrated with the way their favorite teams have blown leads from time to time.

So what causes blown leads by teams – either good or bad?

The Nature of the NBA

One of the most significant factors in the frequency of blown leads is the sheer pace of the NBA game. Unlike other sports where the clock is a more static element (think: football or baseball), the NBA operates on a constant back-and-forth rhythm. The game is fast, with possessions that can change in an instant. A team that falls behind by double digits can easily close that gap with a few quick baskets and some aggressive defense.

The game’s ebb and flow make momentum a powerful force. When a team starts hitting shots, particularly from deep range, it can quickly swing the entire dynamic of a game. The three-point revolution has made these comebacks even more likely. The best example of this is the Golden State Warriors—many of their most iconic victories, including their championship runs, were fueled by explosive three-point barrages that turned a seemingly insurmountable lead into a distant memory.

Pressure and Complacency

Another reason leads are often blown is psychological. Teams that have built a significant lead can sometimes become complacent, thinking they’re already on the verge of victory. This can lead to less focus, more turnovers, and a general shift in strategy that opens the door for the opposition to strike. Whether it’s poor shot selection, lazy defense, or simply a loss of intensity, a big lead can make a team think they have more time to coast—and that can be dangerous.

On the flip side, the team trying to mount a comeback is often fueled by the pressure of time running out. When the game is on the line, players tend to play with more urgency, which can cause the defense to break down and the offense to flow more smoothly. It’s easy for a team that’s in control to get rattled when the pressure intensifies in the final moments, allowing the other team to capitalize.

A Game of Runs

The rise of the three-point shot has dramatically changed the landscape of the NBA, and it plays a huge role in the frequency of blown leads. Teams can now score in bunches much faster than in the past. A 12-point lead can feel like a comfortable cushion in the middle of the game, but with a team like the Golden State Warriors or Boston Celtics on the other side, that lead can vanish in the blink of an eye.

When you have multiple shooters on the floor who can catch fire—like Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, or Klay Thompson—the risk of a comeback increases exponentially. A few quick threes, combined with a couple of fast breaks, can erase what was once a commanding advantage. And with the NBA being a league of "runs," a 10-0 or 12-2 run can quickly shift the momentum and turn a game on its head.

Full-Blown Collapse

Turnovers are another common culprit in blown leads. In the heat of the moment, players sometimes force ill-advised passes or try to do too much, leading to costly mistakes. In a close game, especially when a team has a lead, turnovers can be killers. They not only give the opposing team extra possessions but also take away the opportunity for a team to set up its offense.

Additionally, poor execution in clutch moments can also contribute to a blown lead. In high-pressure situations, teams that fail to run effective plays, get the ball to their best scorers, or make smart decisions can see their lead evaporate quickly. Players start to panic, defenses tighten up, and the result is a series of missed opportunities that can snowball into a full-blown collapse.

Is Blowing Leads a Massive Dilemma?

In the end, blowing a lead in the NBA is a harsh reminder that no advantage is ever truly safe, but with the right mindset and execution, teams can learn to turn those nerve-wracking moments into game-clinching victories. It’s all about staying sharp, staying hungry, and never underestimating the power of momentum.

While the thrill of a comeback can make for great highlights, it’s the teams that can hold their ground under pressure—remaining disciplined on defense, executing in crunch time, and keeping their composure—that ultimately separate themselves as champions. In this game, the final whistle doesn’t blow until it’s over, and anything can happen in those last few minutes. But for the teams that understand the value of consistency and focus, the reward is worth the fight.

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