Polymarket has been associated with election betting, although it has been quick to confirm that it's not just the outcome of the US presidential elections that it is interested in. It is, after all, a crypto-trading platform, and betting on the US presidential election's events is just one of its prediction markets. And insiders say that Polymarket's new foray in the US market will be all about sports betting.

In the era of big data, election enthusiasts have a new favorite: prediction markets, where users can wager on anything from election results to economic forecasts. This year, the spotlight is on Polymarket, a blockchain-powered platform that has captured substantial attention as political tensions rise and the crypto industry funnels millions into betting avenues. While political insiders debated President Joe Biden's future, Polymarket users were already betting on whether he'd step down - and many made accurate calls. Yet with US restrictions on political betting, Polymarket's impressive volume stems largely from international users, although users from the US still find ways to access the platform despite regulations.

Polymarket's predictions

The numbers are staggering. Polymarket reports that its markets on the 2024 US presidential race alone have attracted an incredible $2.8 billion, though roughly a third might stem from so-called wash trading, where users create artificial transactions to boost liquidity. Politics, therefore, has been Polymarket's cash cow, significantly exceeding the platform's other categories. However, with election season waning very soon, the platform is shifting focus to sports betting - an area with the potential to draw a large, consistent user base outside of political cycles.

For Polymarket, sports could be a game-changer. In October, the platform subtly promoted its sports category by tagging it 'NEW,' and although the label has since disappeared, Polymarket's leaders are making their ambitions clear. Chief Executive Officer Shayne Coplan recently demonstrated this vision in response to a New York Times article about potential manipulation risks within the platform. "Polymarket is not about politics," he posted on X (formerly Twitter). "The vision never was to be a political website, and it still isn't." He pointed out that the platform's vision is broad, and its aspirations to branch into sports are gaining momentum.

A shift in focus: the sports betting market exhibits great potential

Backing Polymarket's efforts is Nick Tomaino, founder of investment firm 1confirmation, which has put faith (and funds) into the platform. "Sports will be more of a focus after the election," Tomaino told Front Office Sports. "There's already almost $95 million in USDC volume on the Super Bowl 2025 future market." This early response signals that bettors are warming to Polymarket's sports options, although the platform will face a steep learning curve as it adapts its prediction-market structure to fit the high-stakes, fast-paced world of sports.

Polymarket's approach differs from traditional sportsbooks, where bookmakers analyze data to set odds and maintain a roughly equal split of bets on either side to guarantee profits. In contrast, prediction markets rely on contracts or events that boil down to yes-or-no questions: Will Georgia be able to win the championship in college football? Will Jake Paul defeat Mike Tyson? Users purchase shares based on the likelihood of these outcomes, which adjusts dynamically based on collective betting sentiment. If bettors favor one outcome heavily, its price rises; if opinions shift, so does the share price. This fluid system is designed to reflect real-time probabilities that shift as information surfaces.

In sports, where injuries, penalties, and live scores constantly alter expectations, this dynamic, user-driven betting style may appeal to fans looking to capitalize on such changes. Tomaino suggests, "24/7 real-time trading for sports outcomes will be big. Sports futures is a unique product. You can bet on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at any sportsbook, of course, but you can't trade around the position." On Polymarket, users can sell their shares before a game or event concludes, allowing them to lock in gains or cut losses. For instance, a bettor who backed the Dodgers early in the World Series could sell those shares as their odds of winning improved.

A new and innovative way to bet: but will it work?

Yet this blend of sports and prediction markets is not without challenges. Other platforms, like Frontrunner, have attempted similar ventures but ultimately struggled to capture a solid foothold. Polymarket's individual game markets currently face thin volume compared to sportsbooks with dedicated sports betting user bases. When Thursday Night Football debuted on the platform, it registered just over $500,000 in betting volume - meager compared to the billions in weekly action seen by US sportsbooks during the NFL season.

For Polymarket, the task now is to pivot successfully and build its credibility among sports bettors. Tomaino and Coplan are betting on the platform's ability to create a new model, one where crypto-powered prediction markets offer bettors flexibility and responsiveness unmatched by traditional sports betting sites. The question remains: as Polymarket moves beyond politics, can it entice sports fans to explore prediction markets' unique offerings? Time will tell if the platform's latest venture can score big with a new audience.