No CFTC Action On Sports Predictions Expected In 2026
Sports prediction markets dominated the gaming conversation in 2025, but those hoping for regulatory clarity in 2026 are likely to be left waiting. New CFTC chair Michael Selig has indicated he will not move quickly on the issue.
Instead, the fate of sports prediction contracts offered by regulated exchanges will largely be shaped by ongoing court cases, even as major sports betting brands roll out their own prediction platforms across the US.
⏳ 4 mins read
📖 Published: January 3rd, 2026
✍️ Updated: January 3rd, 2026
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No CFTC Action On Sports Predictions Expected In 2026
Sports predictions and what exactly will happen with them was the hottest gaming topic of 2025.
Anyone looking for that question to be answered in 2026 will likely be disappointed.
The Commodity Futures Trade Commission has its new chairman, Michael Selig, who was confirmed in December. But Selig has no intention of making a decision himself on sports predictions despite multiple requests from federal lawmakers to treat such markets as sports betting and leave regulation up to the states.
A delayed decision on sports predictions has its benefits and downfalls for the incumbent exchanges like Kalshi, as sports betting brands are now launching their own predictions platforms so they do not miss out on building up databases in states without legal betting.
Sports Predictions Will Be Up To Courts
Selig made it incredibly clear where he stands on the issue of sports predictions contracts offered by CFTC-regulated exchanges: on the sidelines.
“As someone who spent many years practicing law at law firms as well as studying the law in law school, these are complex issues as to interpretation of what it means to constitute gaming,” Selig said. “And, of course, I have the utmost respect for our judges working on these issues in our court system and I intend to always adhere to the law and follow what judicial decisions tell me to follow.”
Plenty of exchanges are wrapped up in lawsuits with state gaming regulators over whether the sports predictions contracts should be traded on those exchanges, with mixed results across U.S. District Courts so far. Selig sees the potential for the issue to eventually be in front of the country’s top court.
“Many lengthy legal opinions have been written on one word in a statute and I would really want the benefit of understanding what the judges think about the issue,” he said. “This could be one that works its way all the way up to the top and so I’ll look to the courts to the issue.”
Here Come Some Sports Betting Brands
The delay has led some sports betting brands to decide they cannot wait for the courts to act. It has also led to a shakeup within the gaming industry and created a divide amongst online sports betting operators.
DraftKings and FanDuel left the American Gaming Association over their plans to launch predictions, with both platforms going live in December. FanDuel also relinquished its Nevada license while DraftKings withdrew its dormant application to avoid regulatory action by the Nevada Gaming Control Board.
Nevada’s strong stance against sports predictions is essentially keeping sportsbooks backed by retail casinos, like BetMGM and Caesars, from entering the market.
While DraftKings and FanDuel plan to only offer sports predictions in states without legal betting, Fanatics, which was the first of the three to launch, is live in a number of smaller states with legal sports betting.
Photo by AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib
