Cowboys vs Commanders Christmas Odds, Picks & Props Preview

Cowboys vs Commanders Game Overview

The Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) and Washington Commanders (4-11) meet in a Week 17 NFL Christmas game on Thursday, Dec. 25. Kickoff is set for in 1:00 p.m. ET from Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md. The game will broadcast live on Netflix.

The Cowboys are 8.5-point favorites on the spread over the Commanders (Cowboys -8.5), the game total is set at 50.5 points. The Cowboys are -425 favorites on the moneyline, while the Commanders are +350 to pull off the upset.

Let's get into an NFL Christmas preview and Cowboys vs Commanders predictions for today's NFC East clash.

Cowboys vs Commanders Prediction

Cowboys vs Commanders picks: Jake Ferguson Anytime TD; Cowboys Alt Spreads; Josh Johnson props.

The Cowboys vs Commanders best bets are Cowboys alternate spreads, a Jake Ferguson anytime touchdown and Josh Johnson props.

Cowboys vs Commanders Odds

Thursday, Dec 25

1 p.m. ET

Netflix

Cowboys Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-8.5 -110	50.5 -110o / -110u	-425

Commanders Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+8.5 -110	50.5 -110o / -110u	+350

Cowboys vs Commanders NFL Christmas Preview

There is absolutely no reason to bet a traditional side or total in this game.

This is an utterly meaningless game for both teams — both playing on short rest — in Week 17. Washington is starting 39-year-old veteran Josh Johnson, who's made single-digit NFL starts in his career and has more teams, contracts, interceptions, and years of service than touchdown passes.

Dallas has dominated the rivalry recently, winning four of the last five, seven of nine, and 14 of 19. Moreover, these games typically haven't even been close — only one of the last 14 games has been closer than seven points, with an average margin of victory of 19.8 points per game.

Still, it is Christmas and it is the first game on the slate, so there is reason to look for alternate lines and long-shot angles.

The Cowboys offense is obviously the top unit in this game, by a wide margin. Javonte Williams has run well most of the year, and Dak Prescott and his pair of elite wide receivers — CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens — have lit up defenses all season and should not find much difficulty against a Washington defense that ranks bottom five in DVOA against both run and pass on the season.

Dallas ranks top 10 by EPA per play both rushing and passing, and the Cowboys are top 10 in Success Rate as well, while Washington ranks bottom 10 in that metric. The Cowboys are big favorites for a reason — they should move the ball and score with ease.

Cowboys vs Commanders Betting Analysis

Jake Ferguson Anytime Touchdown

If you are looking for an Anytime Touchdown bet to start the holiday, Jake Ferguson looks like a strong angle.

Washington ranks dead last against tight ends by DVOA and has allowed 10 touchdowns to the position already. That is second most in the league and includes seven in the last nine games alone. It also includes two scores to Ferguson in the previous meeting this season, when he caught all seven of his targets for 29 yards.

Ferguson did not rack up much yardage but made his catches count. In a game expecting a ton of scoring, he is a good touchdown bet at +150.

Cowboys Alternate Spreads

The most likely outcome here is a comfortable Cowboys win, but the line has ballooned well past the point of investment at Dallas -8.5 and could push to -9.5 by kickoff for teaser protection.

Rather than playing the traditional spread, an alternate Dallas line is a sharp play.

Only one of the last 14 meetings in this rivalry finished closer than seven points, with an average margin of victory of almost 20 points per game. Over half of those matchups (8-of-14; 57%) saw a win by 20 or more points, and Dallas has won three of its six games this season by 15 or more points and has scored 31 or more points in all but one of its victories.

The Cowboys beat Washington earlier this season by 22, doubling the Commanders up, 44-22.

Rather than paying for a bloated -8.5, the recommendation is to split a side bet between Cowboys -14.5 at +186 and -19.5 at +340.

Could This Become a Shootout?

Dallas is expected to score on Washington. The real question is whether the Commanders can return the favor.

Only three defenses in the NFL rank worse than Washington by DVOA — Dallas is one of them. In fact, the Cowboys are dead last after their showing last week.

These are the two worst defenses in the league by EPA per dropback.

The total for this game is down four points from Week 7 when Jayden Daniels started the game healthy. Johnson is the third-string quarterback and has only nine starts in his career, just one since 2018.

Washington has been a far better offense at home this season, better than league average by DVOA, versus bottom five on the road, and the offense has been much better early in games. That could point to a first-half over, which has hit in all but one Dallas game this season.

The Commanders are fringe top 10 in Success Rate offensively, while Dallas is near the bottom in defense, so it would not be surprising if Washington finds ways to move the ball, as in the first meeting.

Josh Johnson Prop Angles

Josh Johnson has only one NFL win as a starter in his career.

The conservative play is probably just hitting Johnson unders — under on passing yards, under on rushing yards, under on touchdowns. These lines have to respect how bad the Cowboys defense is, so they are all too high as median outcomes, and Johnson is always a threat to get injured at his age or he could be benched at some point.

However, the Cowboys defense has turned opposing quarterbacks into superstars all season.

Russell Wilson threw for a career-high 450 yards and three scores at age 37 and was benched one week later. Caleb Williams threw four touchdowns and came two yards shy of 300. Justin Fields passed for 283 yards. Bo Nix threw four touchdowns. Even J.J. McCarthy scored three times.

Dallas has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season by a wide margin. The Cowboys have allowed the most passing yards, the most passing touchdowns, the most rushing touchdowns and the third-most rushing yards.

Johnson does not have many NFL skills, but his running ability is one of them. He has rushed for 40 or more yards in five of his nine (56%) starts, and though none of that has come since 2018, he has only started once since then.

Alternate rushing lines are appealing: 25 or more yards at +194 and 40 or more at +700. Dallas has allowed 23 or more rushing yards to quarterbacks in 60% of its games and 30 or more in 40%.

The Cowboys have also allowed eight rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, including five in the last seven games. Johnson has only one career rushing touchdown, but he is worth a touchdown sprinkle at +640.

There is also a passing-volume angle. Johnson has played 80% of the snaps only twice since 2018; in both games, he threw 40 or more passes and broke 300 or more passing yards, his only two such games of his career.

Dallas has allowed 283 or more passing yards in nearly half its games (7-of-15), including three of the last five. Five quarterbacks have thrown 39 or more times against Dallas — none of them in wins.

Johnson is +1200 to attempt 40 or more passes. Additional alternate passing-yardage ladders include 275 or more passing yards at +875 and 300 or more yards at +1600.