Analyzing NBA Winning Trends Over the Last 5 Years

The National Basketball Association is one of the most well-known leagues in the United States and is revered as the leading basketball association all over the world. In the aftermath of the 2023-24 season, fans and critics alike have been discussing as to how the 2024-25 season might actually wind up being a bigger season than ever before. The last five NBA seasons provide us with an insight that can predict us with a possible winner in the coming NBA season.

What to Expect in the 2024-25 NBA Season?

The 2023-24 season ended with a bang for the Boston Celtics as they finally claimed their first NBA title since 2008, which is more than a decade of poor runs before they finally switched it up in the last five years, coming up with impressive winning strides and competitive playoff campaigns, reaching the Finals twice in the last five years. Now they are set to defend their title with the hopes of establishing their dominance in the game now more than ever.

Of course, there are plenty of contenders in the mix for playoff contention. In the Eastern Conference alone, there are a few teams who have a strong potential to win the East and challenge the dominance of the Celtics at this point. The Milwaukee Bucks, the Philadelphia 76ers, and even the Miami Heat are all promising contenders to look out for, with the New York Knicks also joining the fray among the top teams in the East.

Milwaukee Bucks image

Of course, it cannot be denied that we are also expecting to see some wild battles in the Western Conference. The Dallas Mavericks managed to come out of the pack with a promising campaign for the ages, but the coming season is definitely something that you can look out for as the likes of the Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, and Minnesota Timberwolves are definitely chasing their way to the top of the West, and this has always been a story to look out for in the wild competition so far.

Let’s not forget that there are also multiple NBA teams who are expected to be on the rise next season, such as the Memphis Grizzlies, the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Chicago Bulls, and even the San Antonio Spurs – are all slated to be on the playoff chase next season according to many bookmakers.

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Analyzing the Winning Trends of NBA Teams in the Last Five Seasons

The last five seasons can be a good sample size to determine which team has managed to come up with an impressive winning pace in their games over the years. It also serves as a benchmark for the teams’ chances of winning heading into the season. This way, we can find out which teams are more likely to make it to the playoffs, win the Finals, or finish at the top of their respective conferences based on their improvements in the previous season. Of course, these are just mere predictions based on the stats in the season, and there is still a chance that it may not be the actual result of standings in the campaign.

Rank	Team	Conference	2019-20	2020-21	2021-22	2022-23	2023-24	W-L%
1	Milwaukee Bucks	Eastern	56-17	46-26 (X)	51-31	58-24*	49-33^	66.5
2	Boston Celtics	Eastern	48-24	36-36^	51-31	57-25	64-18 (X)*	65.6
3	Denver Nuggets	Western	46-27^	47-25	48-34	53-29 (X)	57-25*	64.1
4	Philadelphia 76ers	Eastern	43-30^	49-23	51-31	54-28*	47-35	62.4
5	Phoenix Suns	Western	34-39^	51-21	64-18*	45-37	49-33	62.2
6	LA Clippers	Western	49-23	47-25	42-40^	44-38	51-31*	59.74
7	Miami Heat	Eastern	44-29	40-32^	53-29*	44-38	46-36	58.1
8	Dallas Mavericks	Western	43-32	42-30	52-30*	38-44^	50-32	57.3
9	LA Lakers	Western	52-19 (X)*	42-30	33-49*	43-39	47-35	55.8
10	Utah Jazz	Western	44-28	52-20*	49-33	37-45	31=51	54.62

Over the past five NBA seasons, the Milwaukee Bucks have emerged as the most successful team, boasting an impressive win-loss percentage with five consecutive playoff appearances, each with a season of at least 45 wins. Notably, the Boston Celtics achieved a remarkable feat in the 2024 season by securing 60+ wins, while the Phoenix Suns achieved the same in 2022, with both teams advancing to the NBA Finals. It's interesting to note that teams with a minimum of 44 wins in the regular season have consistently made it to the NBA Finals in the past five seasons, with the Boston Celtics notably achieving this threshold twice with at least 50 wins.

Conversely, the Charlotte Hornets, San Antonio Spurs, and Detroit Pistons have been unable to secure playoff berths in the last five campaigns. The Washington Wizards, despite having the 29th-ranked win-loss percentage, surprised many by clinching a playoff spot in the 2020-21 season. Notably, four of the top 10 teams in win-loss percentage over the last five years have gone on to win the NBA Finals. Additionally, the Golden State Warriors, despite being ranked 12th overall, clinched the NBA Finals victory in the 2021-22 season after finishing with a 53-29 record.

Boston Celtics image

What Does the Data Tell Us?

Teams in the top 10 have managed to come up with impressive strides in the last five years. On top of that, the data shows that teams in the top 10 have only missed the playoffs six times out of a combined total of 50 seasons. This means that 88% of teams with winning records make their way to the playoffs, which proves that there is indeed a certain correlation between winning seasons and reaching the playoffs at the very least.

On top of that, four of the 10 teams have won the NBA Finals, with the Milwaukee Bucks having the lowest record of 46-26 in their winning season. According to the last five years, it is safe to say that teams winning the NBA Finals need to at least have 45 wins in correlation to the teams with at least 44 wins to be considered a contender for the NBA Finals.

To sum it up, it is easy to say that the 2024-25 season can actually have its promising contenders from the NBA Finals from the top 10 teams on this list. However, considering how unpredictable the NBA can be, it is easy to say that there is also a chance that a team from the lower ranks might actually be able to come up with a daring run to the top as well.

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Winning Trends - Can it Help Determine Playoff Teams?

When it comes to winning trends, it is easy to say that the most recent season comes into play as it serves as a starting point as to how the team can actually pick up where they left off. So let’s dig deep into this one.

For instance, there are a total of nine teams that have reached their highest winning points in the last five years. It is worth noting that these teams have all reached the playoffs, with the Celtics (highest point of winning with a 64-18 record), winning the NBA Finals as well. Boston has had a consistent winning percentage in the last five years, going for a 256-134 record with a 65.6% winning rate in that span.

Rank	Team	Conference	2019-20	2020-21	2021-22	2022-23	2023-24	W-L%
1	Boston Celtics	Eastern	48-24	36-36^	51-31	57-25	64-18	65.6
2	Denver Nuggets	Western	46-27^	47-25	48-34	53-29 (X)	57-25*	64.2
3	LA Clippers	Western	49-23	47-25	42-40^	44-38	51-31*	59.7
4	New York Knicks	Eastern	21-45^	41-31	37-45	47-35	50-32*	51
5	Minnesota Timberwolves	Western	19-45^	23-49	46-36	42-40	56-26*	48.7
6	New Orleans Pelicans	Western	30-42^	31-41	36-46	42-40	49-33	48.2
7	Oklahoma City Thunder	Western	44-28	22-50^	24-58	40-42	57-25*	48
8	Indiana Pacers	Eastern	45-28	34-38	25-57^	35-47	47-35*	46.6
9	Orlando Magic	Eastern	33-40	21-51^	22-60	34-48	47-35*	40.2

San Antonio Spurs image

In terms of winning trends, there are a total of seven teams that currently have a winning track in the last five seasons. To measure this, their record per season has been compared one year after another. Teams that have had winning seasons for the last five years in a row are automatically qualified. On top of that, teams the winning trend considers the current pace of the team, meaning that teams that have losing seasons in the first two campaigns or have had a minor drop in the middle of the five seasons are considered to have a winning trend as well as long as they are now on the upward side.

So, yes. The winning trends based on the data gathered actually provide us valuable insight as to which teams have a better chance of making it to the playoffs next season. For starters, you can expect these nine teams that have a winning trend right now to be playoff contenders for the next season as their trajectory presents them to be a winning team as well.

Milwaukee Bucks championship image

Will We See a New Champion and Contenders Next Season?

If our data serves us right, then it is expected that the Celtics, Nuggets, Clippers, Knicks, Timberwolves, Pelicans, Thunder, Pacers, and Magic are all slated to become playoff teams in the coming season. However, it is worth noting that this research did not put other factors into consideration, such as player injuries, trades, and signings that can also alter a team’s chances of winning next season.

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