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NFL Thanksgiving Week 13 Betting Trends and Odds Breakdown
Thanksgiving NFL betting overviewTurkey, stuffing, pumpkin pie … complaining kids … bickering relatives.Thanksgiving truly is a tradition like no other. Thankfully, that tradition also includes a delicious distraction: wall-to-wall NFL action — both on the field and at the wagering window.With the holiday in mind, we’re dishing out a feast of Turkey Day-related NFL betting trends amid our breakdown of this year’s Thanksgiving weekend matchups, capped off by a Black Friday battle between NFC division leaders.All listed odds are via BetMGM and subject to change.Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 48.5)Kickoff: Thursday, 1 p.m. ETMoney line: Packers +125/Lions -150With the exception of a five-year stretch during World War II, the Lions have hosted a Thanksgiving Day game every year since 1934.They’re 38-44-2 all-time on the holiday, with last year’s 23-20 victory over Chicago snapping a seven-game Turkey Day losing skid.However, Detroit failed to cover as a hefty 9.5-point favorite against the Bears, falling to 3-5 ATS in its last eight Thanksgiving contests (0-2 ATS as a favorite).Green Bay is 15-18-2 when playing on Thanksgiving, including 14-17-2 on the road.Most recently, the Packers defeated Miami 30-17 in last year’s prime-time Thanksgiving contest, easily covering as 3.5-point favorites.Green Bay has faced the Lions on Thanksgiving seven times this century, going 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS.Overall, though, Detroit is on a 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS roll in this NFC North rivalry dating to Week 18 of the 2021 season.The Lions needed overtime to fend off the New York Giants in Week 12, prevailing 34-27 in a game that featured 1,011 yards of offense.Detroit never threatened to cover as a 14-point home favorite, ending a lengthy (and impressive) NFL betting trend: The Lions, who were coming off a Week 11 loss at Philadelphia, had covered in 13 consecutive games following a defeat.Instead, Detroit has now failed to cash in back-to-back games for the first time since an 0-3 ATS slide that started exactly a year ago (Weeks 13-15).Green Bay is coming off consecutive victories over the Giants (27-20) and Vikings (23-6).By easily cashing as a 6.5-point favorite against Minnesota on Sunday, the Packers halted a three-game spread-covering slump.Still, Green Bay remains just 2-7 ATS in its last nine overall, and 1-4 ATS away from Lambeau Field this year (but 3-1-1 SU).The over cashed in eight of 11 Thanksgiving games at Ford Field from 2010-2020. However, since 2021, the under is 3-1.During this 15-year stretch, the Lions and their Thanksgiving opponents have cleared 48 points nine times — but just twice since 2021.Then again, Detroit and Green Bay have topped 50 points in seven of their last 11 head-to-head clashes (including four of five in the Motor City).Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 52) at Dallas CowboysKickoff: Thursday, 4:25 p.m. ETMoney line: Chiefs -190/Cowboys +155With the exception of 1975 and 1977, the Cowboys have hosted a Thanksgiving Day game every season for the last 60 years, going 34-22-1.Dallas is currently riding a three-game Thanksgiving winning streak (2-1 ATS). In the previous dozen years, though, the Cowboys played like a turkey, going 4-8 on the field and 2-10 at the betting counter.Meanwhile, the Chiefs have played on Thanksgiving just 10 times in franchise history and only once in the last 30 years: In 2006, they defeated Denver 19-10 as one-point home favorites in the first-ever Thanksgiving night contest.This marks just the second time since 2011 that Dallas will be an underdog on Thanksgiving. The only other instance was in 2017, when the Chargers traveled to Arlington, Texas, and won 28-6 as one-point favorites.Going back to 1998, the Cowboys are 1-5 SU and 3-3 ATS as a Turkey Day ’dog.Dallas erased a 21-0 deficit in Week 12 and stunned Philadelphia 24-21 as a 3-point underdog, matching the biggest comeback in franchise history.The Cowboys, who were coming off a 33-16 rout of the Raiders, have won consecutive games for the first time all season. The last time Dallas won as many as three in a row: a five-game winning streak from Weeks 10-14 of 2023.The Cowboys went 4-1 ATS during that stretch, cashing in three straight contests from Weeks 10-12. That stands as the team’s most recent 3-0 ATS run.Kansas City also rallied for a Week 12 win, climbing out of a 20-9 fourth-quarter hole against Indianapolis and eking out a 23-20 overtime victory.The triumph followed back-to-back upset losses at Buffalo (28-21) and Denver (22-19). However, the Chiefs came up short as 4.5-point favorites against the Colts, their third straight non-cover.Including a season-opening game against the Chargers in Brazil, Kansas City is 1-4 SU and ATS away from home in 2025 — all as a favorite.A totals-related NFL betting trend that bears mentioning: The under has cashed in each of Kansas City’s last six games, with all six falling short of 50 points.The Chiefs haven’t had a 7-0 “under” stretch since Weeks 7-13 of the 2011 season — two years before head coach Andy Reid arrived and seven years before Patrick Mahomes took over as the team’s starting quarterback.Then again, all five of Dallas’ Thanksgiving games this decade have cleared the total. Combined points scored: 57, 69, 48, 55 and 47.Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 52)Kickoff: Thursday, 8 p.m. ETMoney line: Bengals +280/Ravens -350The NFL added a new holiday tradition in 2006 when it introduced a third game to its Thanksgiving menu and slotted it in prime time.With the exception of 2020, the Thanksgiving night contest has been played every year since and resulted in this related (and eye-popping) NFL betting trend:Favorites are 15-3 SU and 14-4 ATS, including eight consecutive wins and covers.Additionally, 12 of the 18 prime-time Thanksgiving games have stayed under the total, including eight of the last 10.Cincinnati’s only Thanksgiving appearance was in 2010, when it lost 26-10 to the Jets as a 9.5-point underdog.The Ravens have played twice on Turkey Day, and both occasions were at home in prime time. They topped San Francisco 16-6 as a 3.5-point favorite in 2011, then defeated archrival Pittsburgh 22-20 as a 3-point favorite two years later.The latter contest is the only time in 18 Thanksgiving night battles that the winner failed to cover the point spread.Baltimore ran its winning streak to five in a row with Sunday’s 23-10 rout of the Jets. However, the Ravens came up just short as 14-point favorites, ending a 3-0 ATS uptick.Meanwhile, the Bengals have dropped four in a row, the latest being a 26-20 home loss to New England in Week 12. Since starting the season with back-to-back wins over Cleveland and Jacksonville, Cincy has lost eight of nine.The Bengals did cover as 7.5-point underdogs against the Patriots, but remain just 4-7 ATS for the season (3-5 ATS as an underdog).From 2022-2024, the Ravens went 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS in prime-time games. However, they’re 1-2 SU and ATS under the national spotlight this season.Cincinnati has split its eight prime-time games both SU and ATS since the start of last year, going 1-1 SU and ATS this season.The Ravens have won four in a row in this AFC North rivalry (3-1 ATS). Going back to the second meeting of the 2018 campaign, Baltimore is 10-3 against Cincinnati on the scoreboard but has cashed just six times.During this 13-game stretch, the Bengals lost six of seven in Baltimore, but they’re 5-2 ATS.Baltimore’s first five games this season jumped the closing total, but the under is 4-2 in its last six. Also, the under is 3-1-1 in Cincinnati’s road games.On the flip side of the NFL betting trends ledger, the over is 4-2 in games played at M&T Bank Stadium in 2025. What’s more, the over is 7-2 in the last nine Bengals-Ravens battles, with the last five in a row hurdling the total.Final scores of the last four meetings: 27-24, 34-20, 41-38 and 35-34.Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 44.5)Kickoff: Friday, 8:20 p.m. ETMoney line: Bears +260/Eagles -325The NFL’s most recent addition to the Thanksgiving weekend docket was the advent of a “Black Friday” game two years ago.The Dolphins won the inaugural contest in 2023, blasting the Jets 34-13 as 9.5-point road favorites.Last year, the Chiefs edged the Raiders 19-17 but never came close to cashing as 13.5-point home favorites.Chicago has assumed sole possession of first place in the NFC North thanks to an 8-1 heater that includes an ongoing four-game winning streak.The Bears won those four games by a combined 14 points, with the most recent nail-biter being Sunday’s 31-28 home victory over Pittsburgh as 2.5-point favorites.Throw in back-to-back 25-24 road wins over the Raiders and Commanders, and six of Chicago’s eight victories have been by a total of 16 points.From an NFL betting trends perspective, the Bears have been bullish during their 8-1 SU roll, going 7-2 ATS (including 4-1 ATS on the road).Chicago also has been money as an underdog, posting 4-1 SU and ATS mark since an ugly 52-21 loss at Detroit in Week 2.The Eagles went to Dallas in Week 12 as 3-point favorites and scored three touchdowns in the game’s first 18.5 minutes. However, they got outscored 24-0 from there, with the final points coming on a 42-yard field goal as time expired.The loss snapped Philly’s four-game SU and ATS winning streak.It was the third straight time — and fifth time in the last seven games — that the Eagles offense tallied 21 points or less.On the bright side for the Eagles, they’re 4-1 at home this season (3-2 ATS). The only on-field blemish was a 21-17 Week 5 loss to Denver.Philadelphia also has defeated the Bears five straight times since 2013, going 4-1 ATS.The Eagles have followed 5-1 “over” stretch with a 3-0 “under” run.Conversely, Chicago has eclipsed the closing total in four of its six road games. Also, eight of the Bears’ 11 contests have featured at least 45 combined points (and another landed on 44).
