NFL Week 13 Player Props Overview

NFL Week 13 is well underway, with three games from Thanksgiving and another from Black Friday in the books. Things will pick back up for NFL Week 13 action with seven games starting at 1:00 p.m. ET, and two NFL player props stand out from those contests. The late-afternoon slate features three games, with one starting at 4:05 p.m. ET and two more beginning at 4:25 p.m. ET, and two more player props are appealing bets from those contests.

Oronde Gadsden (Los Angeles Chargers - TE)

Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-135) at Fanatics Sportsbook

The Chargers are 9.5-point favorites against the visiting Raiders, and they might ease off the accelerator if they smash their AFC West foes. Nevertheless, Oronde Gadsden can have a massive hand in opening up a large lead, and Las Vegas’s run defense is one of the few things they’ve done well this year.

As a result, the Raiders are tied for facing the 10th-highest pass rate over expectations (2.8% PROE) this season. Conversely, the Chargers have the fourth-highest PROE (6.3%) this season. They don’t need their arm twisted to air it out.

Gadsden should thrive when Justin Herbert takes to the air. The pass-catching rookie tight end has a 62.3% route participation rate, 18.1% air yards share, 14.7% target share, 0.20 targets per route run (TPRR), 37 receptions (4.1 per game), 507 receiving yards (56.3 per game) and 2.13 yards per route run (Y/RR) in nine games this season. His stellar production is even more impressive given his slow build-up, logging only a 36.1% route participation rate through Week 4.

Gadsden has exceeded 40.5 receiving yards in six of nine career games played, including five of his past six contests. The rookie tight end’s median output is 46 receiving yards. The Raiders haven’t explicitly been an easy assignment for tight ends. Still, five tight ends have cleared 40.5 receiving yards against Las Vegas.

Gadsden can be the latest tight end to accomplish the feat against the Raiders. He’s excelled against the coverage tendencies utilized by the Raiders. Las Vegas has played zone coverage at the highest rate (84.3%) and Cover 3 coverage at the highest rate (46.3%) this season. Gadsden has recorded 0.22 TPRR and 2.97 Y/RR on 153 routes against zone coverage and 0.28 TPRR and 3.61 Y/RR on 46 routes against Cover 3.

Even if the Chargers can salt the game away on the ground, Gadsden should barbecue the Raiders and surpass 40.5 receiving yards, making his over for receiving yards one of the best NFL Week 13 bets.

Khalil Shakir (Buffalo Bills - WR)

Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at BetMGM

The Steelers have struggled mightily against wide receivers this year. Through Week 12, Pittsburgh has allowed an NFL-high 2,029 receiving yards (184.5 per game) to wide receivers. The Steelers haven’t shaken out of their season-long funk lately, coughing up the most receiving yards (921 at 184.2 per game) to the position from Week 8 through Week 12.

They have allowed 16 wide receivers to surpass Khalil Shakir’s Week 13 receiving yardage line of 46.5 in 11 games. The Steelers have allowed at least one receiver to eclipse 46.5 receiving yards in six straight games.

The Bills will be without starting tackles Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown this week, which creates some risk that the offense falls flat on its face. However, if Josh Allen can stay upright with reserves at left tackle and right tackle, Shakir is the most likely pass-catcher for the Bills to have a stellar showing against the Steelers.

Shakir leads the Bills in route participation 72.1%, target share (20.7%), first-read rate (23.4%) and receptions (54), and he’s second on the club in receiving yards per game (51.3). Dalton Kincaid hasn’t logged a full practice this week, casting significant doubt on his playing status in Week 13.

Shakir would be Buffalo’s unquestioned top passing-game option without Kincaid, but there would be plenty of room in the passing attack for him to exceed 46.5 receiving yards, even if Kincaid suits up. FantasyPros has a rosy outlook for Shakir’s NFL Week 13 showing, projecting him to have 56.6 receiving yards, putting him over his line and cementing his over as a strong bet.